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innovations that would boost the energy cluster, and also address production and consumption challenges in the agriculture, food, land and biodiversity cluster (see Box 23.6).


23.11.2 Implications for future assessments 23


The global review of the scenario provided a useful overview for synthesizing the range of potential interventions available for moving to a more sustainable future. Furthermore, by having concrete examples, it was possible to analyse the likely synergies and trade-offs between these interventions. However, the nine additional interventions that were uncovered in the bottom-up analysis should be considered in future global Outlooks (Figure 23.18). Smart cities, for example, were emphasized in the regional Outlooks as a means of achieving integrated responses to sustainability that capture many interventions towards transformative change. Exploring these urban opportunities, and the role they have in shifting urban-rural dynamics, should be a strong focus in global assessments given current population and urbanization trends. The bottom-up initiatives highlight sharing economies and circular economies as fast-evolving, and region-specific emerging interventions. Future global assessments should aim to factor the impact of such interventions into their outlook. Although the important role of indigenous and local knowledge in sustainability innovations not added in as a separate category, this has been captured as an important aspect in similar participatory processes undertaken by IPBES (See Lundquist 2017; IPBES 2018e) and could be highlighted in the next iteration of assessments.


Regional emphasis for the same intervention, or clusters of interventions, can differ enormously across and within regions.


Box 23.6: Case study: food systems


GEO-6 identifies the food system as a key cross-cutting issue due to its wide-ranging environmental impacts (water, land and GHG emissions) (see Chapters 4, 8 and 17). In the stakeholder engagement and crowdsourcing initiatives throughout the GEO-6 process, 27 out of the 156 workshop-collected seeds related directly to food, and 11 out of the 34 Climate CoLab finalists’ proposals did as well. There was a willingness demonstrated by participants to embrace a more sustainable food system, with a large diversity of proposals including dietary change (e.g. eating less meat), reduction of waste in the food distribution system, and alternative production systems. Some workshop seed proposals did not address environmental impacts explicitly, such as those relating to food waste; however, given that an estimated one-third of food produced globally is wasted (see Chapter 8), reducing this would make more effective use of the natural resources consumed by agricultural production.


Several of the workshop seed proposals related to dietary change, specifically advocating increased uptake of – and support for – vegetarian and vegan diets. Such diets are widely understood to demand less land, water and energy than meat-based diets (Pimentel and Pimentel 2003), although regionally appropriate livestock rearing on pasture can be sustainable (Eisler et al. 2014). Others related to alternative farming methods (e.g. urban agriculture, rooftop farms, agroforestry) that could potentially have a positive impact on food security while reducing dependence on land and/or water resources. The Climate CoLab proposals contained more detail than the seed initiatives collected during the face-to-face stakeholder workshops. While the dominant focus of these proposals was obviously climate change, about one-third were related to the food system. Proposed solutions ranged from very broad-scope, global interventions such as a sustainability network involving “tens of thousands of food forests” through to more targeted interventions such as improving the moisture-retention capacity of agricultural soils in drought-affected parts of Africa. Notwithstanding the challenge of demonstrating effectiveness, the bottom-up scenarios show a clear willingness to embrace changes in the food system, suggesting a degree of public awareness of the necessary changes identified in the modelled pathways in Chapter 22.


Some of the proposed interventions, both from the seed workshops and from the Climate CoLab platform, could represent game- changers that – subject to further, rigorous examination – have the potential to fundamentally alter the way to develop model-based food-production scenarios in the future. The modelled links between population, meat consumption, average agricultural yields and resultant land use could be substantially reimagined in light of, for instance, widespread reuse of food waste for nutrient recovery (Cordell et al. 2011), combined with regenerative, ecological and multifunctional agriculture systems that have the potential to both increase and diversify yields (Horlings and Marsden 2011). In addition, radical models of optimized hypothetical diets have also been presented in the literature (Schramski et al. 2011; Ward et al. 2014), which could play a role in altering the conventional views in scenarios, of a rigid relationship between humans and land use.


572 Outlooks and Pathways to a Healthy Planet with Healthy People


Collecting, piloting and scaling a diverse range of bottom-up initiatives that are relevant to the local context can therefore be extremely useful in providing tangible examples to policymakers of otherwise generic pathways. Effective governance, and awareness and skills building were two interventions that all Regional Assessments emphasized. By comparing the interventions identified in the chapters presenting the Outlooks from the Regional Assessments with interventions identified from the review of the scenario literature, we identified several gaps, which should be noted and explicitly considered in future Regional Assessments. The most notable gaps were in the human well-being cluster, and in the inclusion of more social and behavioural interventions in the other clusters (e.g. nutrition management, diet change, energy access).


The review of the global scenario literature showed clearly that some interventions towards sustainable development could achieve synergies across multiple targets, while others may lead to trade‐offs with specific targets. Table 22.1 provides a template for understanding which interventions trade off against each other or provide co-benefits. This systematic consideration of synergies and trade-offs between interventions would ensure an integrated approach that links top-down and bottom-up visioning.


23.12 Enabling conditions for transformations


The literature argues that transformations for sustainability require innovation – both technological and institutional (Olsson et al. 2017). Chapter 24 elaborates more fully on the relationship between policy and enabling transformative change towards achieving specific future goals. This chapter concludes with a discussion of what types of conditions are


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