Figure 16.4: Progress towards universal basic sanitation services (2000-2015) among countries where at least 5 per cent of the population did not have basic services in 2015. .........................................416 per year). ........................417


Figure 16.5: Trends in global water withdrawal by sector between 1900 and 2010 (km3


Figure 16.6: Proportion of total water withdrawn for agriculture. .....................................................417 Figure 16.7: Changes in global gross crop water demand over time. .................................................418


Systemic Policy Approaches for Cross-cutting Issues Figure 17.1: Climate finance on adaptation. .......................................................................430 Figure 17.2: Health and sustainability of country X’s dietary intake. ...................................................436 Figure 17.3: An illustrative energy system. ........................................................................437 Figure 17.4: Building a circular economy. .........................................................................440 Figure 17.5: Closed-loop material flow diagram of 6R elements and the four life cycle stages. ...........................441 Figure 17.6: Outline of a circular economy. ........................................................................443 Figure 17.7: Domestic extraction and domestic material consumption. ...............................................445 Figure 17.8: Citizen engagement in sharing: the percentage of 2013 survey respondents who had engaged in a sharing scheme, either formal or informal in the previous 12 months. .................................446


Outlooks in GEO-6 Figure 19.1: Conceptual framing of the chapters in Part C of GEO-6, how they are related, and how they contribute to a holistic analysis and assessment of human-Earth systems that identifies transformative development pathways ..........................................................................................468


A Long-Term Vision for 2050 Figure 20.1: A framework for the classification and grouping of the SDGs. . ...........................................474


Future Developments Without Targeted Policies Figure 21.1: Selected targets and their related clusters as examined in this chapter. ...................................490 Figure 21.2: Future projections of the global population (left) and urbanization (right). ..................................491 Figure 21.3: Future projections of total GDP per region under SSP2 (left) and global GDP under SSP2 and SSP3 (right). ....491 Figure 21.4: Future projections of global average crop yield (top left), crop production (top right), agricultural area (bottom left), and forest and other natural land area (bottom right). .......................................493


Figure 21.5: Future projections of global undernourished population. .................................................494 Figure 21.6: Future projections of relative local species richness for a range of climate stabilisation scenarios and Mean Species Abundance (MSA) for SSP2 and SSP3 land-use.. ..........................................494


Figure 21.7: Future projections of global primary energy consumption (left panel) and per energy carrier in the SSP2 marker scenario (right panel). ........................................................................495


Figure 21.8: Projected increase in global CO2 emissions (left) and total GHG emissions (right). ..........................496


Figure 21.9: Global mean temperature increase. ...................................................................497 Figure 21.10: Future projections of emissions for air pollutants SO2


, NOx and BC. .......................................498 Figure 21.11: Projected under-five mortality rate in 2030. ............................................................502


Pathways Toward Sustainable Development Figure 22.1: The scenarios from the Roads from Rio+20 study. ......................................................514 Figure 22.2: Selected measures and their related clusters as examined in this chapter. .................................515 Figure 22.3: Percentage change in non-energy crop production versus the percentage change in non-energy cropland area from 2010 to 2030 and 2050. ....................................................................517


Figure 22.4: Global CO2 emissions and associated global mean temperature increase for the SSP2 baseline and derived scenarios consistent with the Paris target to stay well below 2°C increase. .........................521


Figure 22.5: 2010-2050 energy intensity improvement rate and the 2050 share of low-greenhouse gas technologies in total energy mix of the scenarios included in the SSP database. ..........................................522


Figure 22.6: Different pathways leading to a global mean temperature increase well below 2°C. .........................523 Figure 22.7a: Projected global emissions for SO2


, NOx and black carbon under different climate and air pollution policies. ...525


Figure 22.7b: Differences in air pollution emissions between various climate mitigation scenarios, and the SSP2 baseline. .....................................................................................525 )


Figure 22.8: Percentage of the population exposed to particulate matter of less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5 concentrations under the WHO guideline and interim target for 2050. .....................................527


Figure 22.9: Quick-scan of synergies and trade-offs between selected measures and targets. ...........................534 Figure 22.10: Global mean temperature increase in 2100 versus bioenergy use in various SSP scenarios .................536


Bottom-up Initiatives and Participatory Approaches for Outlooks Figure 23.1: Outline of how this chapter’s bottom-up approaches complement the top-down findings of Chapters 21 and 22 and how together they can offer policy insights for Chapter 24. ....................................551


Figure 23.2: The number of initiatives covered in a sample of platforms that feature bottom-up sustainability initiatives (see Annex 23-1 for a brief description of the platforms). ................................................555


Figure 23.3: The SDGs represented proportionally by how they are covered by the selected bottom-up sustainability initiative platforms. Some initiatives are narrower in scope and strictly relate to one, two or three SDGs, while others are diverse and capture a wider range of SDGs (four or more) (see Annex 23-1 for a brief description of the initiative platforms). ................................................................555


Figure 23.4: SDGs targeted by the total workshop seeds and the total Climate CoLab proposals. ........................556 Figure 23.5: Actor types represented by total seeds and total Climate CoLab proposals. ...............................557


xviii The Sixth Global Environment Outlook


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