2 Towards a Sustainable Future Earth 2.4 A Look into the Future


Now that we have an idea about the futures the world’s youth want, it’s time to explore the possible futures presented in GEO-6.


No one can predict the future. Nevertheless, scenarios are a useful tool for looking at very different futures and how they could become real under different circumstances that would either support or impede efforts to achieve sustainable development. For example, the success of these efforts might depend on technological innovations, governmental regulations and policies, or societal change. This chapter presents two scenarios, based on the analysis in Chapters 21 and 22 of GEO-6 (UNEP 2019a), with the help of our six imaginary characters (see “Reading Tools” in the General Introduction).


The first scenario extends our current way of living into the future, assuming there will be no significant changes in our societies


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or economies (see GEO-6, Chapter 21). This report will refer to that scenario as “the path we are on”, although scientists and others also commonly refer to it as “business as usual” scenarios. If we remain on the path we are on, the SDGs will not be reached.


To avoid such a bleak future, it is important to look at how we could meet the environmental goals within the SDGs (that is, their “environmental dimensions”). We will therefore present a positive pathway to sustainability (see GEO-6, Chapter 22) called the “more sustainable scenario” or “the path we should take”.


Even as we move towards the path we should take, environmental problems that already exist (such as climate change) will make it impossible to return to a natural environment that is pure and pristine. In the “more sustainable scenario” there will still be some serious environmental problems.


We will show how the main drivers of environmental problems described in Chapter


1 (population growth, economic development, urbanization, technology and climate change) will collectively impact the Earth System in the future. We will also look at the roles of the food, energy, and waste systems.


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