resilience tourism resilience centre opens ौH UHSRUW DOVR QRWHG “/RZHU


international visitor losses tend to be found where minimal structural damage occurred or when travellers were quickly reassured that a destination is safe and the situation under control.” It suggested: “People are becoming


more resilient to shocks especially when they are familiar with a destination.”


DISASTERS AND DISEASE ौH VWXG\ IRXQG UHFRYHU\ WLPHV IROORZLQJ natural disasters showed the greatest range, “from just one month to 93 months, due to the wide variation in severity of natural disaster events”. ौH UHSRUW QRWHG “1DWXUDO GLVDVWHUV have dramatically increased in both


Civil unrest is far more damaging to a country’s travel and tourism sector than one-off terror attacks


EXECUTIVE confidence in


organisations’ ability to handle crises appears unmatched by rates of crisis simulation (Figure 82)


FIGURE 82: CONFIDENCE IN CRISIS RESPONSE % senior executives involved in crisis management


100 90% 88% 87% 86% %


20 40 60 80


0 50% 17%


System failure


Corporate scandal


Cyber attack


53% 37% 20% 22%


Corporate failure


Health scare


Industrial accident


22% 12% 12%


Transport accident


Societal activism


Political unrest


Product recall


Natural disaster


22% 79% 79% 76% 72% 71% 70% 70%


Confident in response Simulated crisis


60% 33% 16%


Terror attack


Base: 523 crisis management, business continuity & senior executives Source: Deloitte, 2018 Global Crisis Management Survey


frequency and magnitude, with the number quadrupling between 1970 and 2016. Hurricanes and cyclones are becoming increasingly common disasters, whose severity is projected to increase in coming decades largely due to climate FKDQJH DQG KXPDQ VHिOHPHQW SDिHUQV Sea level rise will cause higher storm surge levels . . . tropical cyclone rainfall and intensity rates are likely to increase.” On the impact of disease, it concluded: “Epidemics and [disease] outbreaks have EHFRPH WKH QHZ QRUPDO ौH ULVH LQ population density in large urban areas and enhanced international mobility and travel have led to higher exposure to novel diseases and increased potential for transmission.” However, this is not the biggest


problem when it comes to recovery from a disease outbreak. Former World Health Organisation director general Margaret Chan noted: “Rumours and panic spread ौH :RUOG %DQN HVWLPDWHV ە IDVWHU of economic losses during a disease outbreak result from uncoordinated SXEOLF HਬRUWV WR DYRLG LQIHFWLRQ ौH UHSRUW DGYLVHG “(ਬHFWLYH


management of a crisis requires the rapid activation of emergency plans as well as quick, accurate and transparent communication.” It suggested governments “engage with the private sector to improve crisis preparedness, management and recovery plans”.


The Deloitte view


There is a sense of déjà vu in risk and crisis management, as many of the issues raised in this report a year ago remain valid. How the UK’s exit from the EU will impact


the sector is still to be fully understood, and economic challenges remain. The sector has seen a major travel company collapse, with an impact across the industry. In the crisis sense, ‘bad actors’ are always


looking to exploit ambiguity and fissures in systems. It is consequently vital to guard against company failure risks and ensure


efforts to repatriate and refund passengers maintain appropriate levels of security, regardless of the inevitable consumer or media pressure to resolve things quickly. Other, more traditional crisis


management activities continue to be important in a sector that regularly faces new challenges. Recent aviation sector incidents have


highlighted how third-party risk needs to be managed carefully. Every travel company with a large fleet of assets, or a business


that relies on access to these, should have plans ready in case these become no longer available. This means having plans in place not only to reschedule passengers but also to deal with the various consequences such situations might have. None of these activities are


straightforward but, if not handled sensitively, have the potential to precipitate


further challenges for the industry. █Tim Johnson, partner, Risk Advisory; Bob Judson, senior advisor, Risk Advisory


50 Travel Weekly Insight Report 2019-20


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