Outbound Summer market defies challenges


The outbound sector had a difficult 2019 amid uncertainty about the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU, initially set for the end of March, and significant overcapacity in the short-haul market.


It saw months of tough trading, then something of a reprieve for summer 2019 bookings in late spring and summer before the failure of Thomas Cook in September posed a different set of problems. These factors – overcapacity, Brexit and Cook’s failure – plus underlying uncertainty about the economic outlook dominated the year and will largely shape the outbound market in 2020. Yet they remain tempered by the remarkable resilience of KROLGD\bGHPDQG It’s worth noting 2018 was a record


year for outbound holidays with bPLOOLRQ 8. GHSDUWXUHV ,QGXVWU\


DQDO\VW *I. UHSRUWHG VXPPHU bookings ended 5% up year on year. It would be remarkable in the circumstances if 2019 topped that performance. The trade went into January 2019


in a strong position, with summer 2019 bookings up 9% year on year and revenue growth in double figures despite a 20% plunge in bookings in the second half of December following a Sunday Times front page warning “Don’t go on holiday after March 29” (December 16, 2018).


The Deloitte view


Holidays continued to be important for Britons in 2019. The Deloitte Consumer Tracker showed net spending on holidays has continued to track above most other leisure categories. Europe remains the most-important


destination for Britons. Spain and France alone generated more than £5 billion from outbound UK tourism. Newer destinations such as Bulgaria have continued to gain traction with UK consumers owing to their budget-friendly offerings. The uncertainty and depreciation of


sterling possibly impacted winter 2019-20 bookings, which have trended below last year’s levels. In the long term, a more significant


challenge is likely to be the increasing focus on sustainability and the impact this might have on consumers’ decision to travel abroad, for business or pleasure. While the sector is undoubtedly taking steps to limit its negative effects on the environment and to increase the positive impacts it can have on local communities and economies, the consumer is becoming increasingly


demanding and educated about the subject. It is critical that the sector considers care-


fully whether it is truly exploring all avenues to continue to offer travel opportunities in a way that is sustainable for future generations. Travel agents will continue to play an important role in the process. As consumers seek more unique, personalised experiences, there is no better time to highlight how agents can help consumers navigate choice and


keep holiday experiences exciting and fun. █Danielle Rawson, director, Travel and Aviation


Sector withstands Brexit delays and overcapacity but summer’s end dominated by collapse of Thomas Cook


It was a pattern repeated through


early 2019. By January’s end, summer 2019 bookings remained 4% up year on year, but Brexit concerns, amplified by sensationalist media reports, were having a demonstrable effect. When Iata warned flights could be cancelled in the event of D QR GHDO %UH[LW DQG WKH 8. JRYHUQPHQW warned travellers to check passports ZHUH VXIILFLHQWO\ XS WR GDWH IRU (8 WUDYHO they triggered a spate of headlines such as “No-deal threat to 5m tickets” and “Passport chaos: 3.5m could be INVALID”. *I. VHQLRU FOLHQW GLUHFWRU 'DYLG +RSH


noted: “The market dropped off a cliff.” The difficulty was highlighted by Brittany Ferries chief executive Christophe Mathieu, who told an Abta Brexit briefing in March: “We can’t offer reassurance when people book. We’re unable to give answers other than ‘We hope to minimise disruption’.” By late March, summer 2019 bookings


were running 7%-10% down year on year each week and season-to-date bookings were barely up on the previous year. The inevitable Brexit delay appeared to have no immediate impact. In early April, +RSH UHSRUWHG “7KLQJV DUH QRW JHWWLQJ better. Everything is down.” By late April, season-to-date bookings for the summer had turned negative. Discounting halted the decline and


pushed summer bookings in May up 1% year on year at the price of a 1% drop


16 Travel Weekly Insight Report 2019-20


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