Future of work automation need not mean wholesale job losses
Change in the workplace is a given – from increasing use of technology and transformation of roles and skills to increased diversity among the workforce. The numbers in work have never been
so high, yet warnings of the impact of technology on jobs are widespread. Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane warned in late 2015 that up to 15 million jobs in the UK – half the workforce – are at risk of replacement by technology. There was no sign of half the
workforce disappearing at the end of 2019, but concerns about people being displaced by a ‘fourth industrial revolution’ based on data, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics remain. Shivani Maitra, Deloitte partner in human capital, is optimistic about the impact on work but suggests fundamental changes are already under way. She said: “We talk about the future of work, but it’s happening now and the pace of change is not going to slow. Technology is driving a lot of this, but there are other factors. “First, the rise in the freelance or
contingent workforce is having a big impact. Second, this is the first time there has been such a multigenerational workforce. There are the millennials [born in the 1980s and early 1990s], the baby boomers [born post-war], veterans who are working longer because of longer
FIGURE 71: AGE COMPOSITION OF WORKFORCE, 1995-2017
10 20 30 40 50
0 42% 38% 38%
% of European workers by age group 40%
40% 34% 26% 20% 22% 37% 31% 32%
Under 35 35-49 50-74
Business should focus on the human in seeking to manage
technological and demographic change in the workplace
lifetimes, and people born in the late 1990s and 2000s joining the workforce. “Third, the barriers to entry in business
are fewer. You can run a business from your mobile phone. You can run a taxi business without owning any cars. Smaller players can disrupt bigger businesses. “Fourth, the socioeconomic changes
around the world mean no group of people is unaffected.” These changes raise questions about “what this means for work, for workers and the workplace”, she said. “The first issue is how adaptable are you and your organisation? How quickly can an organisation respond to external events? “Second, customer and employee
experiences are becoming inseparable. The ‘experience’ an organisation offers is not just about the customer but about the worker. Third, organisations need to focus on outcomes, value and purpose rather than processes and profit. Fourth, organisations and people need to focus on capabilities rather than skills.”
AUTOMATION OF JOBS Maitra says forecasts that “45% of jobs will be gone in 10 years” are inaccurate as new jobs will be created and others augmented by technology, but she warned: “Businesses are going to be heavily impacted by automation.” Citing Deloitte survey data, she said: “Up to 41% of businesses are already using automation extensively and 60% soon will.” In the airline industry, she added: “Most of our clients expect workforce capacity benefits from automation. [They view it] as a way to cut costs and streamline repetitive processes.” Maitra notes a significant difference
THE AGE composition of the 1995 2002 2010 2017
Source: Eurostat/ Deloitte European
Workforce Survey 2018
average workforce in Europe has been transformed since the 1990s (Figure 71)
42 Travel Weekly Insight Report 2019-20
between attitudes to automation among business leaders and workers. Among the latter, Deloitte research found 60% believe progress in automation will be slow and few appear to think automation will eliminate their own jobs. But she argued: “The half-life of technical skills is decreasing rapidly.
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