market outlook consumer confidence pressures


that flights will operate irrespective of no-deal, but that is not the only factor. It’s more about certainty.” Pritchard does not foresee agreement on Britain’s withdrawal leading to a surge in the value of the pound. He said: “[Currency] dealers have already priced in expectations on the exchange rate. I don’t see sterling returning to heady heights.”


ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN


Brexit was not the only source of uncertainty. Alexander Boersch, chief economist at Deloitte Germany, highlighted a “synchronised slowdown” in the world economy when he addressed the European Hotel Investment Conference in London in November. Boersch said: “Trade growth is at an all-


time low if we exclude the [2008] financial crisis. There has been an industrial recession in eurozone manufacturing through the whole of 2019. We see a 20-point fall in investment intentions. There is a two-tier economy. Services and domestic-oriented sectors thrive but manufacturing suffers. Can this decoupling go on? Yes, for now, but not for ever. It could last into next year.” He described forecasts of slower but continued global


growth as “somewhat optimistic”. Yet UK demand for overseas holidays


THE UK is among the world’s top-four source markets for international travel and the


number two for travel spending per head, only narrowly behind Germany (Figure 6). Total UK


outbound holiday numbers are at an all-time high, although


provisional figures suggest a small dip in spring 2019 (Figure 7). The overall recovery since 2008-10 is


not reflected in first-quarter figures which remain down on 2008


broadly held up and exclusive research by Kantar for this report suggests good reason for confidence going into 2020. It found a small increase to 53% in the proportion of UK adults intending to take an overseas holiday in 2020 and almost 90% expecting to spend as much as or more than in 2019 – when outbound holidays in 2019 appeared set to equal the record of 47 million set in 2018. Pritchard explained: “The UK


FIGURE 6: GLOBAL TOP-FIVE TRAVEL SOURCE MARKETS, 2018


Departures


million 100


20 40 60 80


0 71m* $ 93m 89m 72m


1,000 1,200


29m


200 400 600 800


0


FIGURE 7: OVERSEAS HOLIDAYS FROM UK, 2008-19 Holiday trips by quarter and % change on 2008


10 15 20


0 5


Source: ONS Q1 (Jan-Mar) -13% Q2 (Apr-Jun) +6% Q3 (Jul-Sep) +4% Q4 (Oct-Dec) +8%


Holiday trips by quarter % change on 2008


$440 $199 $1,160 $1,152


China US


$716


Germany UK France


*Excl. Hong


Kong, Macao, Taiwan


Source: UNWTO Spending per head of population


10 Travel Weekly Insight Report 2019-20


2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018


Holiday trips (million) 8.7m 6.5m


5.9m 5.8m 5.7m


5.8m 5.8m


6.5m 7.2m 7.7m 7.5m 7.6m


12.2m 10.6m 9.5m


10.5m 10.2m 10.4m 10.9m


11.9m 12.1m


13.1m 13.4m 13m


16.4m


14.4m 14.2m 13.7m 13.7m


14.5m 14.5m


15.8m 17m 17m 17m


8.3m 7m


6.7m 6.8m 6.6m 7m


7.4m 8m


8.7m 8.9m 9m


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