consumer continues to be in a reasonably good place. Over the first nine months of this year we had UK wage growth exceeding inflation, high levels of employment and low interest rates. The one caveat is there are signs things may become more challenging.” He noted: “There tends to be a
lag between business confidence and consumer confidence and businesses have been more cautious for a time. The most-recent figures showed employment falling and that could potentially have a bearing on wages. Consumer spending might become a bit weaker. “Looking at the global economy,
Germany, China and the US all weakened. We have slowing global growth, with tariffs biting. Trade-related matters have created uncertainty and where there is uncertainty you have less confidence to invest and a tendency to retrench and control costs. The risk is that multiple economies tip into recession.” He acknowledged an added problem: “The ability [of central banks] to invest in fiscal stimulus [cut taxes] is more limited because of the measures already taken. To an extent, we’re overdue a recession. “Most major economies will see slower
THE FALL in the value of sterling
against the euro since 2016 appeared to have little overall impact on UK holiday numbers to the eurozone at first, possibly as it coincided
with a shift away from the eastern Mediterranean. The subsequent impact appears muted (Figure 8).
Brexit may have more of an impact (Figure 9). Research for this report suggests 45% of holidaymakers
foresee a potential impact, with a sharp difference in view by age
growth. That does not mean people won’t go on holiday, but it raises the question whether they will go as many times, go away for as long and spend as much. People will still want to travel, but perhaps on a slightly tighter budget. All-inclusive resorts give some certainty about costs so are likely to be popular.” The Kantar research suggests a four-
point rise year on year to 50% in the proportion of UK holidaymakers intending to book all-inclusive accommodation.
FIGURE 8: UK-EUROZONE HOLIDAYS* & EXCHANGE RATE: 2007-19
10 15 20 25 30 35
0 5
31.7m 31.2m €1.46
26.6m €1.26 €1.12 €1.17
24.2m 25.1m 25.1m 26m 27.1m €1.24
€1.15 €1.23 €1.18
29.6m €1.38
31.8m 33m 33.1m 32.6m €1.22 €1.14
1.5 2
€1.13 €1.12 6.3m 6.6m 7.2m 7.4m 7.3m 7.1m 7.5m 8.1m 8.2m 8m 8.6m 8.7m 8.4m
0.5 1
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019**
*EU15 states, includes main eurozone destinations but excludes Cyprus, Malta & Slovenia **12 months to June Exchange rate at June 30 Figures rounded Source: ONS/UK Treasury
FIGURE 9: BREXIT’S IMPACT ON OVERSEAS HOLIDAYS
‘How much impact, if any, might Brexit have on the likelihood of you taking an overseas holiday?’ % change in ‘impact’ year on year
% % change YoY
Don’t know 13%
-11 No
impact 42%
+5 Source: Kantar/Service Science, October 2019 +2
Significant impact 14%
Some impact 31%
Some impact 31%
+4 +6
IMPACT 45%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Child No Child ABC1 C2DE +20 66% +9 62% 49% 40% 34% 22% 25% 28% 31% 46% 41% 0 -1 +7 64% 55% 47% 49% 40% 50% 48% 37% 39% 33% 50% +3 +9 +14 +1 +7 +6 +4 Impact No impact 43% 47% 47% 35% +10
UK outbound UK inbound £/€ rate
Travel Weekly Insight Report 2019-20 11
£/ € rate
Holidays (million)
North Midlands South London
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