in revenue. June brought a turnaround as monthly bookings rose 7% on 2018 and season-to-date revenue returned to 2% up year on year. By mid-July, GfK could report “nine consecutive weeks of passenger growth” which it described as “all-inclusive driven”. Hope noted: “The industry has had to price extremely competitively. The tough trading environment has had a significant impact on cashflow.” How significant was yet to be revealed.
By the end of August, season-to-
date bookings had recovered to 2% up and revenues 3% up. That was before 7KRPDVb&RRN ZHQW LQWR OLTXLGDWLRQ on September 23. The failure rendered LUUHOHYDQW DWWHPSWV WR TXDQWLI\ WKH RYHUDOO state of the market at the season’s close.
OTHER SEASONS
Winter 2018-19 followed a different pattern. Despite a fall from 6% up year on year at the end of December, bookings and revenue remained 4% up to the season’s close – a strong performance given winter 2017-18 ended 4% up year on year for bookings and 9% for revenue. A good start to winter 2019-20
bookings – the season was 9% ahead of winter 2018-19 at the turn of the year – gave way to eight consecutive months of year-on-year decline. This left bookings down 3% and revenue down 1% at the end of August, with GfK suggesting: “7KHb2FWREHU
%UH[LW GHDGOLQH LV D
major concern.” Early bookings for summer 2020 were
1% down on the previous year to the end of August, but average selling prices up 3% with family and all-inclusive bookings growing ahead of the market.
% point change y-o-y
Unlikely 28%
MORE THAN half UK holidaymakers intend their next overseas break to be seven nights or less but, as last year, adults over 45 show a clear preference for longer holidays (Figure 20). Beach holidays are clearly favoured by older adults (Figure 21). All-inclusives are a strong favourite among younger adults, especially parents (Figure 22)
Likely 50%
+4
Undecided 19%
-1
FIGURE 22: LIKELIHOOD OF BOOKING ALL-INCLUSIVE OVERSEAS HOLIDAY, 2020
Likely %
20 40 60 80
0 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Child No child ABC1 C2DE +4 +17 0 0 +3 +10 0 +4 +2 Likely Undecided
% point change y-o-y
% point change y-o-y
+1 -4
Personal tour 5%
Activity holiday 7%
+2 +1
Countryside 8%
City break 19%
0
Group tour 5%
FIGURE 20: DURATION OF NEXT OVERSEAS HOLIDAY By age, child status
% point change y-o-y
0 Don’t +1
1-3 nights 7%
4-6 nights 17%
-1
15+ nights 8%
-1 0
14 nights 17%
8-13 nights 18%
-1
7 nights 29%
%
10 20 30 40 50 60
0 +4 know 4% +1 -9 +10 -1 -9
+5 +10 +12 -7
-7 -3 -5 +2 +2 +3 +1 -2 +3 -1
1-6 nights 7 nights
8-plus nights -2
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Child No child Excludes don’t knows
Don’t know 15%
FIGURE 21: TYPE OF NEXT OVERSEAS HOLIDAY By age, child status +5
% +1
Beach 41%
10 20 30 40 50 60
0
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Child No child Source: Kantar TNS
-11 +2 Beach % point change y-o-y +6 +2
+8
-4 Beach
City break Active holiday
Source: Kantar TNS
Travel Weekly Insight Report 2019-20 17
19% 17% 14%
38% 38%
15% 42% 34% 48% 52% 31% 23% 21% 35% 4%
50% 69% 63% 12%
40% 40%
69% 6% 3% 14% 16% 16% 23% 37% 56% 16%
25% 23%
24% 44% 25%
50% 51%
10% 24% 23% 27% 59% 27% 40% 31% 24% 25% 48%
28%
34% 32%
35% 35%
30% 45% 37%
37%
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