Antimicrobial use: The outlook to 2030
BY TREENA HEIN, INDEPENDENT CORRESPONDENT T
racking current levels of antimicrobial use in livestock farming is a critical step in estimating how much will be used in future – and may help to spur stewardship efforts (changes in how we use
antibiotics) so that resistance (AMR) to antibiotics is minimised going forward.
Current and future trends It’s still a global reality that antibiotics of many important classes in human medicine are still given to livestock animals not only for treating diagnosed illnesses, but also to prevent disease and for growth promotion. This varies by livestock species and country. In late 2020, a group of scientists published a current and future look at the situation. The group included Dr Thomas Van Boeckel, who holds positions at the Institute for Environmental Decisions at ETH Zürich in Switzerland and the Centre for Disease Dynamics Economics and Policy in India, along with colleagues from the Université Libre de Bruxelles and the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique in Belgium, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UN FAO). They collected data on antimicrobial sales for chicken, cattle and pig production in 41 countries and then projected global antimicrobial consumption to 2030. They estimated that globally, sales would rise on all continents, in total rising by 11.5% from 2017 to 2030. However, this is a lower estimate than previous estimates because of recent reductions in antimicrobial use in many countries, particularly in China where most of the world’s antibiotics for livestock are used (Figure 1). At this point however, Van Boeckel says we know very little about trends in use and the extent of AMR in fish production systems. He believes the aquaculture sector deserves more attention in terms of tracking antibiotic use not least because it’s growing so fast compared to production levels of terrestrial livestock species
Lending a helping hand There is also a lack of complete country data, as not all countries share data (or are able to share data) on AM use in livestock production. What can be done to get every country to track AM use and share information? Van Boeckel concurs
▶ ANTIBIOTIC REDUCTION | DECEMBER 2021 7
This article looks at how future levels of resistance to antibiotics can be extrapolated from today’s usage patterns, and how stewardship can be best managed.
that the problem is serious enough and agrees that it would be a good idea for developed countries to give funding to developing countries for this purpose. “In my opinion, even if high-income countries are completely clinical about the notion of other less-developed countries, it would still be in their interest to help countries where surveillance is not yet in place and effective,” he says. “Ultimately they would be protecting themselves by helping others.” He adds, however, that there are already some ongoing initiatives that support low- and middle-income countries to generate, share and use data to improve antimicrobial use and encourage investment in AMR such as the Fleming Fund, “but a global scale-up of these initiatives would be welcome.”
Scenarios that could reduce AM use In March 2021, a paper was published on how use of antibiotics – and therefore AMR – can be reduced on a global scale. The analysis was conducted by scientists at Johns Hopkins University and American University in the US. Using new modelling of global livestock production and trade between 18 countries and aggregated world regions, these scientists were able to see a new level of interconnections
Reducing the use of antibiotics around the globe remains a challenge and requires a multi- faceted approach.
PHOTO: MICHEL ZOETER
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