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lead to more demand for turbochargers, which require precise machining for not only the turbocharger impeller but the im- peller housing as well. Te same can be said for superchargers, another device that boosts induction in internal combustion engines. Te market for superchargers is also growing. Eaton Corp. expects the global market for boosted engines of both types will grow from 4 million to 17.5 million in 2017 (for more details visit http://tinyurl.com/forcedair). Other powertrain trends will impact manufacturing. Te


growing number of gears being used in automatic transmissions to help achieve fuel efficiency is a move that has been afoot for a few years (for more details visit http://tinyurl.com/gearmaking).


Are EVs Dead? While internal combustion engines are not fading away


as quickly as once was thought, pure electric vehicles are not capturing market share as quickly as some predicted in the wake of President Barack Obama’s call in his 2011 State of the Union address to have a million electric vehicles on US roads by 2015. Between December 2010, when 19 battery electric ve- hicles (BEVs) were sold, and July 1, 2014, only 82,817 of these vehicles were purchased in the US, according to the Electric Drive Transportation Association. Sales of BEVs are so low that Morgan Stanley Research


recently issued a market study titled, EVs Are Dead, Long Live Tesla. Elon Musk’s luxury sedan was singled out for praise, wrote Morgan Stanley researcher Adam Jonas, because, “Tesla’s true success is making compelling performance vehicles that just happen to be EVs.” Te majority of auto industry observers praise the Tesla Model S as an exceptional car regardless of the powertrain. Perhaps more tellingly, Toyota, which has sold more than a


million HEVs in the US over the course of nearly 20 years, has turned its back on BEVs. Te Japanese auto giant has with- drawn from an agreement to procure components for a RAV4 EV from Tesla. Automotive News quoted Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota’s


North American region, as saying the company believes BEVs are beneficial only in “a select way, in short-range vehicles that take you that extra mile, from the office to the train, or home to the train, as well as being used on large [corporate] cam- puses. But for long-range travel primary vehicles, we feel there are better alternatives, such as hybrids and plug-in hybrids, and tomorrow with fuel cells.”


Hybrid Market Share Seems Static Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have done much better


than BEVs, with 592,232 HEVs, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and extended-range electric vehicles like the Chevrolet Volt being sold in 2013 alone. Te growth of the hybrid segment may be in the past,


however.


A study by IHS/Polk released in May 2014 found that “the


number of hybrid models in US showrooms has increased every year from 2009 through this year, but their market share has not kept pace. Hybrid share actually declined from 2009 to 2010 and again from 2013 to 2014, despite an increase in model count during both these time periods.” Toyota will not turn its back on HEVs anytime soon, but it


is turning toward EVs that rely on fuel cells. In April 2015 it will begin sales of a fuel cell sedan in Japan.


Te fuel cell will convert hydrogen to electricity. It will have an estimated price of about $70,000. Later that year sales will begin in the US and Europe. Pricing in these markets has not been hinted at.


More Fuel Cells are Coming When Toyota’s fuel cell vehicle (FCV) goes on sale in the


US next summer, it will be a year behind Hyundai in mar- keting such a powertrain in America. Te Korean carmaker leased the first Tucson Fuel Cell crossover in the US to a Cali- fornia family in June. Te FCV began mass production for the US market in April 2014 at Hyundai’s Ulsan, Korea, assembly plant that also manufactures the Tucson gasoline-powered CUV. Te company claims that this is “world’s only mass-pro- duced fuel cell vehicle.” And—at least for now—it is. Nissan plans to introduce its first FCV in 2017. Honda


expects to be producing FCVs by 2020 and is collaborating with GM on the technology. Ford, Daimler, BMW and other automakers are known to have FCV programs as well. As a consequence of this search for high fuel efficiency and


low exhaust emissions vehicles will become even more com- plex than they are now. In many cases that greater complexity will have to fit in a smaller envelope. And of course, it will all have to weigh less. Soſtware will play a big role in achieving this, both for met-


al and composites. CAD/CAM and metal have worked hand in hand for years, but now topology—the shapes and voids in a component—is becoming an even bigger part of the process in order for components to have the necessary strength and functionality at the lightest weight. As noted above, Dassault soſtware played a large role in


creating the composite-bodied BMW i3. Siemens PLM Soſt- ware also has expertise in soſtware for the design and layup of composite structures. It has worked on a number of automo- tive projects and has years of experience in the use of compos- ite bodies in Formula One Racing. As vehicles and the technology in them become more


complicated and complex, digital solutions have become more important. It is now common for manufacturing facilities to be laser scanned. Te data acquired is then used by digital manufacturing soſtware from Autodesk as well as Siemens and Dassault to lay out the most efficient theoretical factory floor plan and then prove out the layout through simulation.


Motorized Vehicle Manufacturing 15


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