Title
Holiday wishes for a “normal” 2011 Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
Holiday wishes for a “normal” 2011
Electronic equipment revenues rose globally about 14% in 3Q’10 vs. 3Q’09 (Chart 1) based upon “almost complete” composite 3Q results of 70 major OEMs representing over 50% of the world’s sales. The ratio of inventories/sales held steady for OEMS, dropped for major EMS companies, rose slightly for semiconductor producers and jumped significantly for electronic component distributors (Chart 2).
All tiers of the electronic food chain
grew in 3Q’10/3Q’09 (Chart 3) with the possible exception of medical equipment (data still incomplete). Although third quarter growth
was strong, signs of slowing are now pervasive—both due to normal seasonality and generally softer demand. Europe’s electronic equipment sales dipped in September (Chart 4) with reports of further softness through at least mid-November. Taiwan/China (Chart 5) peaked in
September (normal seasonality) and is now headed into a post holiday slow season.
20101117 Electronic Equipment Suppliers
Composite of 70 Public Companies Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
100 150 200 250
50 0 -50
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 00
01 Inventory 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Revenue 134 138 143 150 128 134 126 135 120 123 124 136 126 132 137 155 148 156 154 173 159 164 166 182 170 178 183 202 187 199 208 231 210 222 220 213184 194 202 228 211 219 229 Income
11 11 10 7 -1 -5 -12 -1 2 -12 -1 0 5 4 7 10 10 11 11 14 12 13 13 20 14 10 16 19 17 20 18 18 17 16 15 -5 8 12 15 21 17 20 24 57 59 63 65 66 60 53 48 46 44 43 40 39 40 39 39 41 42 43 42 43 43 44 43 46 48 51 50 50 53 54 54 57 58 59 54 50 49 49 49 50 53 55
Computer 11, Internet 5, Storage 7, Communication 11, SEMI 13, Medical 6, Instruments 11, Military 6 Chart 1. $ Billion Preliminary 3Q'10 estimate based upon partial data +14%
Japanese electronics output remains weak and U.S. electronic equipment orders eased slightly in September (Chart 6). Not surprisingly world semiconductor
shipment growth (Chart 7) is dropping quickly from its +60% peak in March 2010. Using the global PMI (Purchasing
Managers’ Index) as a leading indicator, it would appear that the entire world electronics “food chain” will reach “zero 3/12 growth” again in early 2011 (Chart 8). Fortunately the global PMI rose again
in October (Chart 9), suggesting that this year’s electronics post-holiday seasonal decline will be not too severe and the electronics expansion will resume by 2Q’11. After this winter’s slowdown we expect
“normal” growth in 2011 (Chart 10). Happy Holidays!
End markets Electronics equipment growth will outpace worldwide GDP by a factor of more than two-to-one over the next five
20101117
years, while PWB growth will be even higher.—Henderson Ventures Worldwide enterprise IT spending is forecast to reach $2.5 trillion in 2011, a 3.1% increase from 2010 spending of $2.4 trillion.—Gartner Computer related: • Worldwide PC shipments grew 7.6% q/q in 3Q’10 to more than 88.3 mil- lion units.—Gartner
• Apple’s iPad adoption rate is fastest ever, passing DVD players; current sales rate is about 4.5 million units per quarter.—Bernstein Research
• Worldwide tablet sales are expected to grow from 19.5 million units in 2010 to 54.8 million units in 2011.—Gartner
• Hard drive makers will see 4Q’10 ship- ments flat or drop sequentially on weak back-to-school demand
• Hybrid hard-disk drive market is expected to reach 600 million units in
2016.—Objective Analysis Mobile communications: • Handset shipments reached 346.2 mil- lion in 3Q’10 and are on target to hit
Inventory/Sales Ratio
0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85
Large Component Distributors, Semiconductor, EMS & OEM Companies
Quarterly Inventory/Sales ($)
Semiconductor EMS OEM
Component Distrib
Distr
EMS Chips
OEM
3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 00
01 02 03 04 05 CY 4 Component Distributor, 18 Semiconductor, 12 EMS and 69 OEM Company Composite Chart 2. 06 07 08 09 10 11
22 – Global SMT & Packaging – Celebrating 10 Years – December 2010
www.globalsmt.net
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60