14
THE WEIRS TIMES, Thursday, September 16, 2010
METZLER from 9
intra-Islamic sectarian strife has been dampened but not extinguished. In- stability remains a politi- cal and security given. The financial cost of the
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war since 2003 was near $750 billion, according to the bi-partisan Congres- sional Research Service. That sum however was surpassed in one year by Barack Obama’s 2009 controversial “stimulus spending” which exceeds $800 billion. While U.S. combat units
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have now been with- drawn, (some being sent to Afghanistan) 50,000 American troops remain in Iraq “to advise and as- sist” the Iraqi military. That 50,000 number still remains one of the USA’s largest overseas troop commitments anywhere, except of course in Af- ghanistan. Given that American
combat units are out of Iraq, the obvious compari- son emerges with South Vietnam in the waning years of the U.S. involve- ment. Regrettably the reformed and retrained Iraqi army (245,000) and police (410,000) may not be ready for prime-time and are not likely ready to stand on their own against a serious terrorist threat. The bickering Iraqi politicians face gridlock in forming a government six months after elections, and the potent possibil- ity exists that the country will fracture along politi- cal, sectarian or security fault-lines. Yet, an agree-
ment between Baghdad and Washington, allows Iraq to call on American troops to assist in combat operations if needed. Still in South Vietnam’s
case, the main commu- nist offensive came two years after the Americans had left. The collapse of South Vietnam in the spring of 1975 followed a huge conventional mili- tary invasion from North Vietnam as well as contin- ued domestic insurgency. Iraq does not face such a conventional armed threat from across any of its bor- ders (even bellicose Iran is too focused on regime survival for this tact) and thus the danger is over- whelmingly internal from terrorism and sectarian- ism. While inter-Islamic violence is commonplace, and Al Qaida terrorists remain entrenched, Bagh- dad 2010, probably is not Saigon circ 1975. Yet, having “turned the
page” on the Iraq saga, one fears what the next chapter may reveal.
John J. Metzler is a Unit-
ed Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues.
SOWELL from 9 1929 crash, and then be- gan drifting downward. Unemployment was
down to 6.3 percent by June 1930, when the first big federal interven- tion occurred. Within six months, the downward trend in unemployment reversed and hit double digits for the first time in December 1930. What were politicians to
do? Say “We messed up”? Or keep trying one huge intervention after an- other? The record shows what they did: President Hoover’s interventions were followed by President Roosevelt’s bigger inter- ventions-- and unemploy- ment remained in double digits in every month for the entire remainder of the decade. There is another set of
facts: The record that was set in 1929 for the big- gest stock market decline in one day was broken in 1987. But Ronald Reagan did nothing-- and the me- dia clobbered him for it. Then the economy re-
bounded and there were 20 years of sustained eco- nomic growth with low inflation and low unem- ployment. Can you imagine Ba-
rack Obama doing an- other Ronald Reagan? I certainly wouldn’t predict that.
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