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Airport capacity
in the industry. Keller emphasises the importance of an aviation hub to the UK economy: “The power and scale, globally, of our main airport is a massive economic driver. It’s a real success story. It’s a simple choice: do you want jobs here or overseas?” Gatwick, however, is pressing on with its argument that New York is a model of the ‘constellation approach’, whereby three sizeable airports serve the city – something it believes could function for London and the South East. It will be a tall order to persuade airlines of this. Gatwick’s position has been steadily eroded with the loss of all its US carriers to Heathrow and some short-lived services to Asia, such as Korean Air – although it has managed to attract and retain some mainly leisure routes to this part of the world. “Gatwick has put forward some very sound arguments, but the government is saying that it has capacity and the airlines are not taking it up,” says Keller. The building of a second runway at Gatwick will not bring the US carriers back unless there is a massive switch from Heathrow, and that means
Once again, all roads point to
Heathrow or the brave new world of the Thames Estuary – but whichever option is chosen, the commission says there is “a clear case” for an additional runway to be brought into operation in the South East by 2030. The downside is that it might take until then before anything actually happens.
GAP IN THE MARKET Meanwhile, there will continue to be the logjam over the capital’s skies, which London City airport sees as an opportunity. It believes that, because two-thirds of Heathrow’s traffic is point-to-point, a big slice of the short-haul flights there could relocate in its direction. A mini gold-rush is already underway, with airlines like Luxair selling their Heathrow slots for tens of millions and moving east to London City.
The airport currently handles just under 3.5 million passengers and has capacity to take that to six million by 2023 if a planning application this summer is agreed,
Gatwick, however, is pressing on with its argument that New York is a model of the ‘constellation approach’
persuading an alliance to move there lock, stock and barrel. In the 1990s, British Airways put many African and South American flights there, using the slogan: ‘The hub without the hubbub’, but soon found that having two hubs so close – but to the passenger, so far – simply didn’t work. Only a wholesale switch of connecting long- and short-haul flights under one roof will be a viable solution. The bait would have to be a dedicated terminal or, at least, a considerable part of a swanky new building and the granting of slots to permit a wave of connections at either end of the day. Even with all this, it will be a brave group of carriers that agree, particularly as Heathrow is already ahead, with Skyteam occupying Terminal 4 and the June opening of Terminal 2, a dedicated Star Alliance facility. Horst Findeisen, Star’s vice- president of commercial and business development, doubts Gatwick’s persuasiveness. “Passengers prefer Heathrow,” he says. “You can measure that in the premium Heathrow brings. Any offer to move would have to be a damn good one.”
granting permission for a terminal extension, more stands and a taxiway. “Davies doesn’t even present its findings until 2015, and any new runway will take longer than ten years,” says City’s corporate communications director Jeremy Probert. “We’re not a hub replacement, but we could take some of the short-haul from Heathrow, freeing slots for long-haul.” Keller agrees other airports around
the capital have a part to play if Heathrow is chosen. “A three-runway hub may serve us for a long time because we can grow traffic elsewhere. Other cities can’t.” The next decade will undoubtedly
see some capacity shifting around as the arguments and, eventually, perhaps the construction of new runways rumble on. How long this rumble continues
is anyone’s guess, but International Airlines Group (IAG) chief executive Willie Walsh may have summed up many people’s view as to the commission’s likely effectiveness. Walsh said that, when it is published next summer, the commission would
Sir Howard Davies
HOWARD’S WAY
THE WINNERS...
HEATHROW Two runway options have definitely made it to the final:
– a 3,500 metre runway to the north west, extending the airport’s footprint massively over the Harmondsworth area. The claimed construction timetable is six years.
– a wildcard entry involving the extension of the existing northerly runway to 6,000 metres west, meaning it can accommodate simultaneous take-offs and landings.
GATWICK The finalist here is a second runway to the south, involving the demolition of an industrial estate and the building of a new terminal.
THE OUTSIDER...
THAMES ESTUARY AIRPORT Will austerity Britain sink the Isle of Grain option?
...AND THE LOSERS STANSTED Expansion ruled out due to location, environmental difficulties and existing capacity.
BIRMINGHAM The attempt to bring the Midlands airport into the South East’s aviation sphere was roundly rejected.
produce the best report of its kind that the UK has ever seen, but added, wearily, that it would then be given to politicians “who won’t do anything”. It’s a cynical view, but one that might not be too short of the mark. Even Heathrow’s Matthews says: “It’s one thing to produce the report – it’s another to have the political coherence to deliver it.” It could be that by the time
anything is done, Heathrow will have long lost its status as the world’s leading international airport, and Dubai, Istanbul, Abu Dhabi and Doha will be calling the shots. ■
The Airports Commission’s findings so far
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