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Airport capacity
Artist’s illustration of the proposed expansion of Gatwick airport
and flatten two villages. Preliminary costings for this, according to the airport, are around £17 billion, although it is preparing exact figures for resubmission to Davies in May. The other option is left field, literally as well as in concept, as Davies is considering an idea a former Concorde pilot put forward 25 years ago – the extension of the existing northerly runway to the west, allowing it to operate separately for departures and arrivals. The rough cost is £10 billion, although the 2M Group of local authorities surrounding the airport claims the bill for noise insulation for either option will add up to £580 million. Heathrow’s big opponent is Gatwick, which also operates at its limit at peak times. The proposal here is for a new runway of more than 3,000 metres south of the existing one, allowing it to operate independently, at a cost of around £9 billion. As at Heathrow, a new terminal or satellite building would be required. Gatwick operates mainly in a different market to Heathrow, with flights overwhelmingly for the leisure market, but that could change if its wish is granted.
OUT OF COMMISSION The one airport definitely not coming to the party is Stansted, which had pitched itself as a potential replacement for Heathrow, with five runways costing £59-£80 billion. The commission dismissed this idea, saying that Stansted’s passenger numbers “have fallen in recent years and there is considerable spare capacity, unlike at Gatwick”. It added:
“In addition, a large hub airport would be close to the cost of the Estuary, highly disruptive to airspace and would not present the same regeneration opportunities.” Davies concluded, however, that Stansted may have a plausible argument for a second runway in the 2040s. Another loser is Birmingham. It currently has nine million passengers with space to double that now, but it had hoped for the go-ahead for a second runway, rocketing its capability to 70 million. However, even with the HS2 high-speed rail link, the commission said that
Dubai increased its passenger numbers to 64 million, and this year will topple Heathrow’s crown
“intervening to redistribute… excess demand away from airports in London and the South East does not appear to be a credible option”. Birmingham’s retort that Davies “further entrenches the dominance of the South East economy to the detriment of the growth of the rest of the UK” may well be true, but the commission has recognised that persuading Londoners to fly from the Midlands is a tall order. The winners look to be Heathrow and Gatwick, which some might say is no surprise, and unless the Isle of Grain backers come up with something astounding, it seems as if London’s existing two major airports will get their way. Heathrow’s argument is that it is already the UK hub and, if only for the sake of convenience, needs to stay
that way, a view solidly supported by the aviation industry. According to Heathrow chief
executive Colin Matthews, there are six airports in the world that offer more than 50 long-haul destinations, and Heathrow is among them, offering 90, with two runways. This compares to Frankfurt’s 111 destinations using four runways. On this evidence alone, Heathrow should surely remain the UK’s premier airport and, indeed, the world’s premier international airport, and it needs to be expanded to permit this.
GLOBAL COMPETITION However, that latter distinction will not last much longer as Dubai and its airports continues to advance, fuelled by Emirates’ growing fleet of Airbus A380s, the world’s largest. Last year, Dubai increased its international passenger numbers by more than 15 per cent to 64 million and this year it will topple Heathrow’s crown – helped, as Davies points out, by the fact that two-thirds of the world’s population lives within eight hours’ flying from it. Heathrow, which grew its international passenger numbers by only 2.5 per cent in 2013, may well have a geographical advantage when it comes to transatlantic flights, but the Middle East hubs are, from a business point of view, bang in the middle of the planet and will pick up more and more trade from emerging Asian and African markets, particularly once the new five-runway Dubai World Central airport opens. Similarly, the new Istanbul airport, which will open in 2017 with 90 million capacity, is projected to grow
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