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Airport capacity
HOLDING PATTERN
Seeking permission to
land...somewhere. Gary Noakes analyses the implications of the Davies commission’s interim report for UK airports
LIKE CHILDREN WHO SNEAK a peak at their Christmas presents before they’ve been wrapped, Heathrow and Gatwick got a glimpse of bounties to come last December when Sir Howard Davies’ Airports Commission published its interim report. The potential realisation of the two airports’ expectations in the report was a bleak contrast to the result for London mayor Boris Johnson, whose request for a massive hi-tech toy in the Thames Estuary was turned down. Davies has not totally ruled out Boris’s dream present, but has told the excited boy to ask for something slightly different to the island airport he requested and, crucially, to find out how much it will really cost. The next pronouncement from
Davies is likely in September, when he will rule in or out the concept of a new London hub on the Isle of
Grain in the Thames Estuary. From the interim report, the chances do not look good. Davies says the Thames Estuary idea reflects the fact that London’s geography is shifting to the east and “shows great imagination and ambition”, but “costs and risks attached to such plans are so high that they present serious challenges to the credibility of these options”. Furthermore, it would, he says, require the closure of Heathrow for it to be commercially viable, plus that of London City and Southend airports for airspace reasons. Then there is the location: in the middle of a bird and nature reserve – the worst possible in terms of political opposition and potential threat to aircraft safety. But what could really scupper the Isle of Grain proposal is cost. Davies calls it “extremely high”, putting it at £82-£112 billion, including surface
access, meaning it is beyond the range of the private sector alone. The report adds this is five times the price of a new runway at Heathrow and does not include costs related to buying and closing Heathrow.
LEADING THE FIELD The airports that did make the shortlist were no surprise. At Heathrow, one option included the long-mooted plan for a 3,500-metre runway to the northwest. This would raise capacity from 70 million to 130 million passengers a year but involve the demolition of 950 homes
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