35
Imports
TaBLE 1 - Imports (value)
The other side of external trade is,
10
6
mop
Capital Goods Raw Mat Food Cloth & Shoes Imports Fuel
obviously, imports. and there, no one
50000 can complain about lack of growth.
in nominal terms, total imports
45000
have increased steadily since the
40000
opening of the gaming market to new
operators.
35000 TaBlE 1
They have more than doubled
30000
since 2002.
25000
Most of this growth was fuelled by raw
materials - and semi-manufactured
20000
goods - and capital goods, trends that
15000
reflect and are associated with this
period of intense investment.
10000 as investment slows down, overall
growth in imports will also tend to
5000
slow down. The same can be said of
0
imports of consumer goods – namely
food, clothing and shoes.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
They have inevitably followed the
population growth and rising income
and have been actually contracting,
as the economy enters a growth lull.
as of the end of 2008, in aggregate
terms, for the whole year, only food,
TaBLE 2 - Imports (shares) cars and fuel had not contracted
in nominal terms compared to the
Food Cloth & Shoes Cars Fuel Other Imports Raw Mat Capital Goods previous year or years.
100%
TaBlE 2
Similar to what has been done for
exports, the second table shows the
80%
relative shares of the main types
of imports. Two aspects deserve
special mention.
60%
First, the decrease in the share
represented by raw materials, from
40%
half to less than a quarter of total
imports, over the period under
observation.
20%
Secondly, the ‘residual’ category,
“Other imports” rose more than
0%
eight-fold over the period, in absolute
nominal terms, and saw its share
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
increase from about 5 percent to more
than 20 percent.
as was the case for imports, those
figures suggest the need to re-think
the major aggregate categories
used in some of the statistical tables
TaBLE 3 - Consumer goods imports
published, so as to reflect structural
changes in the economy.
10
6
mop
TaBlE 3
in a more detailed way, Table 3
4000
displays the trends, based on the
quarterly data, for the major types
3500
of consumer goods. On one side,
3000
we can see the sustained ascent of
cars. These are durable goods whose
2500 appeal does not fade easily at the first
economic shock.
2000
However, as the slowdown continues
or deepens, demand is very likely to
1500
take a hit. On the other side, food and
1000
clothing, which have already started
to contract as a response to the
500 overall slowdown of economic
activity, not to mention the
0
demographic trends.
00Q1 00Q4 01Q3 02Q2 03Q1 03Q4 04Q3 05Q2 06Q1 06Q4 07Q3 08Q2
april 2009
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