34 economic trends by José I. Duarte
Exports
TaBLE 1 - Exports (value)
The manufacturing sector has been
10
6
mop
Apparel Cloth Other Imports
struggling to keep up with the overall
25000 dynamics of the economy.
TaBlE 1
Textile production contributes heavily
20000
to the sector’s output, as shown in
Table 1.
For most of the period, textiles
represented around 80 percent of
15000
total output. The activity was expected
to take a serious blow with China’s
adherence to the World Trade
10000
Organisation and the liberalisation of
international trade in that sector, in
2005.
5000 Mostly, it has been a tale of decline, in
both absolute and relative terms since
then. a decline whose extension is
0
compounded by the dramatic growth
of the economy, driven by other
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
sectors.
Compared to 2004, apparel and cloth
production are down by half in nominal
terms, while other textile products now
represent less than a third of what
was the case then.
TaBLE 2 - Exports (shares) TaBlE 2
Global textile products’ share is
Apparel Cloth Other Textile Machines Shoes Other Exp
below 60 percent of total output in the
100%
manufacturing sector, a drop of about
25 percentage points in 4 years.
90%
Table 2 highlights these changes in
80% relative terms. it also makes note of
70%
the virtual disappearance of shoe
production, today a mere sixth of what
60%
it was in 2004.
50% as a result of these trends, combined
40%
exports of all other sectors – barely 10
percent of total exports in that year –
30%
today represent today more than one
20%
third of exports.
10%
TaBlE 3
0%
The last table shows, with more detail,
on a quarterly basis, the trends in the
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
textile sector. Besides the marked
seasonal patterns, it makes clear the
kind of transition represented by 2005.
That transition is underlined by the
polynomial trend lines shown in
association with each series.
TaBLE 3 - Textile sector exports
in 2005, we see an immediate shock
Apparel Cloth Other Textile
(way more evident in the quarterly
10
6
mop
data than in the annual data), from
Poly. (Apparel) Poly. (Cloth) Poly. (Other Textile)
which the sector recovered only
3500
partially in the subsequent periods, as
several destination markets invoked
3000
protection safeguards against Chinese
imports.
2500
But that was a recovery that only
delayed an apparent and inevitable
2000
long term decline.
1500
1000
500
0
00Q1 00Q4 01Q3 02Q2 03Q1 03Q4 04Q3 05Q2 06Q1 06Q4 07Q3 08Q2
april 2009
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