Feed Materials Commentary
By Roger Dean
The latest Grain Market Report, published under the auspices of the International Grains Council, was issued on 26 November 2020; the Report is not issued in December, with the next onedue to be published on 14 January 2021. The November issue of the Grain Market Report posited a cut in
total world grain production in the 2020-21 marketing year, amounting to 7 million tonnes compared with the International Grains Council’s October estimate, with total grain production forecast at 2,219 million tonnes. However, this is still ahead of estimated world grain production in 2019-20 which amounted to 2,186 million tonnes. The reduction from the previous forecast was largely accounted
by lower production estimates for maize, down by 10 million tonnes to 1,146 million tonnes, only partly compensated by increases in the forecast production of other grains. The reduced outlook for world maize production largely reflects reductions in the EU, Ukraine and the United States. However, it will be noted that, despite the fact that expectations for the world maize harvest have fallen during recent months, world maize production, at 1,146 million tonnes or 22 million tonnes ahead of the previous year, is still projected to be at record levels, with record crops also anticipated for wheat and barley. The Grain Market Report suggests that sustained growth in usage
of maize will manifest itself in falling end-of-season inventories; this suggests that upward pressure on prices could continue to in the 2020- 01 period as stocks decline for a fourth successive year. Consumption of wheat is predicted to rise less sharply, resulting in a marginally higher increase in end of season inventories and modest increase in prices. It will be noted that no distinction is made between wheat used for human consumption and that used for animal feed. The Grain Market Report has reduced its projection of world
soybean production by 5 million tonnes to 365 million tonnes, compared with its October projection. Nevertheless, this still constitutes a gain of 8 per cent over the previous year and a new world record. The reduction reflects a downgrading of US and Argentine production. Soybean consumption, on the other hand is expected to increase significantly in 2020-21, resulting in a drawdown of end-of-season inventories and upward pressure on prices. The Foreign Agriculture Service of the US Department of Agriculture
publishes monthly estimates of world grain production and consumption and the latest publication was issued on 10 December 2020. World production of wheat, at 773.7 million tonnes in 2020-21,
was 1.29 million tonnes higher than the previous, November projection. This was largely attributable to one country, Australia, where projected wheat production in 2020-21 was increased from 28.5 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes, an increase of 5.2 per cent. This is the second largest wheat crop on record, exceeded only by the 31.8 million tonne crop harvested in 2016-17. Harvested area is estimated at 13 million
hectares, unchanged from last month’s projection, and up 2.8 million hectares or 27 per cent from last year. Wheat yield is estimated at 2.31 tonnes per hectare, up 5 per cent from last month and up 55 per cent from 2019-20. FAS reports that ‘Precipitation was average to above average
during the reproductive stage from August through October’. Soil moisture in virtually all wheat areas was markedly improved from the dry conditions which prevailed during much of the previous season and growing conditions were ‘ideal’ in much of New South Wales and Victoria. FAS also upgraded its estimate of Russian wheat production by
half-a-million tonnes to 84 million tonnes while reducing its estimate of EU production by 750,000 tonnes. FAS has reduced its projection of world maize production by a shade
over a million tonnes to just over 1,143 million tonnes. Two countries account for the bulk of this reduction. Argentine maize production has been reduced by a million tonnes compared to the November projection. The 2020-21 Argentina maize harvest area is forecast lower at 6.1 million hectares, down 2 per cent from last month and down 3 per cent from last year; this is based ‘on dry conditions caused by the ongoing La Niña’. Maize production is forecast at 49 million tonnes, down 2 per cent from last month’s, and down 4 per cent from last year. Yield is forecast at 8.03 tonnes per hectare, down 1 per cent from last month’s projection and down 1 per cent from last year. FAS, on the other hand, has increased its estimate of Ukrainian
maize production in 2020-21 by a million tonnes to 29.5 million tonnes, up 4 per cent from last month’s projection but down 18 per cent from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.46 tonnes per hectare, up 4 per cent from last month’s projection but down 24 per cent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 5.4 million hectares, unchanged from last month’s projection but up 8 per cent compared with last year’s outcome. With regard to yield per hectare, it should be emphasized that the areas still to harvest were the higher-yielding northern regions, thus increasing estimated yield per hectare. It should also be recognized that the USDA crop production estimates for Ukraine include estimated output from Crimea. FAS note that total forecast maize production in Brazil, at a record
110 million tonnes, is unchanged from last month’s forecast but up 8 million tonnes or 8 per cent from last year’s record. Total harvested area, for both the first-season and second-season maize crops, is estimated at a record 19.5 million hectares, up a million hectares or 5 per cent from last year’s record area of 18.5 million hectares. Yield is forecast at 5.64 tonnes per hectare, 2 per cent higher than last year’s crop, but 2 per cent lower than the previous record of 5.77 tonnes per hectare in 2018/19 and up 8 per cent from the 5-year average of 5.20 tonnes per hectare. FAS has reduced its estimate of world soybean production in 2020-
21 by 586,000 tonnes to just over 362 million tonnes. The 2020-21 Argentine soybean harvested area is forecast at
16.7 million hectares, down 1 per cent from last month, and unchanged from last year. Production is forecast at 50 million tonnes, down 2 per cent from last month and 2 per cent below last season’s crop. Yield is forecast as 2.99 tonnes per hectare, less than one per cent below last month but 2 per cent above last year’s yield.
FEED COMPOUNDER JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2021 PAGE 11
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