Floating future
Another significant factor leading to a major jump in projected installed capacity over the coming years is the advancement and commercial demonstration of floating offshore wind turbines, which open up new areas to exploit: specifically, in deeper waters where the construction of wind farms was not previously feasible. Currently almost all offshore wind power generation comes from bottom-fixed turbines, which are restricted to water depths of about 60 meters or less. However, as concepts continue to evolve and become proven, floating turbines will enable wind farm construction in deeper waters that hold some 80% of the world’s wind capacity potential. Representing another boost for overall capacity potential, these areas are typically further from shore where the wind generally blows stronger, resulting in higher turbine capacity factors.
Today’s most proven floating wind turbines are Equinor’s Hywind, employed on the 88 MW
Tampen project, and Principle Power’s WindFloat, being used on the 50 MW Kincardine project, but WER’s report looks at more than 50 floating wind concepts in various stages that are being studied across the globe. Just as is occurring for traditional fixed-base turbine projects, the increasing size of floating projects and the industrialization of the hull construction process is helping certain concepts reduce project LCOE. For example, as Equinor matures the technology, it aims to bring the LCOE of Hywind projects to €40 -60/MWh by 2030.
A pipeline of more than 50 GW of floating capacity requiring $93 billion to $148 billion of capex investment has been identified by WER. As is the case in the bottom-fixed segment, the U.K. presently has the largest floating pipeline at more than 25 GW, followed by Norway (more than 5 GW) and Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Ireland, France and Taiwan, each with multi-GW pipelines. WER’s report highlights the development of a much large pipeline after the middle of this decade, with potential zones discussed in the U.S., Japan, Norway, U.K. and France.
Big potential means big opportunities
Forecasted near and long-term increased activity bodes very well for the global supply chain. WER expects offshore wind projects will require between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion of capex
over the next two decades. Much is still on the table for the gamut of suppliers and marine services firms, as 80% of offshore wind projects detailed in the report and database are still in early stages of planning and development.
With a pipeline of activity so large, there’s plenty of work to be had by existing players and new entrants alike. We’ve already seen a number of traditional offshore oil and gas players—from operators such as Shell, Total, Equinor and Repsol, all the way down the supply chain—transfer their skillset into the offshore wind market over the years. For these firms and others, including traditional offshore oil and gas players such as yards for jacket and HVDC substation fabrication, as well as for construction and assembly of floating foundations, opportunities abound as projects get larger, deeper and further from shore.
Offshore wind farms need servicing, creating even more work for a wide range of support providers from boatbuilders to turbine technicians and marine surveyors. In Europe, for example, onshore operation support bases are having associated positive impacts (long-term direct jobs, and bolstered local supply chains) in port regions that had been historically active but have struggled more recently due depressed oil and gas and shipping markets. Using the current UK $94,000/MW/year operational expenditure (opex) cost, the current pipeline of projects could require up to $46.6 billion of annual opex spend within the next decade, says WER.
72 | The Report • September 2020 • Issue 93
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