OPEC
OPEC launches 2019 World Oil Outlook
The publication combines the expertise of the OPEC Secretariat, professionals in OPEC member countries, OPEC's Economic Commission Board, and more...
H 58 igh-ranking dignitaries,
journalists, analysts, energy sector professionals and more gathered at the Wiener Börsensäle – Vienna’s former Stock Exchange – in
November for the launch of OPEC’s 2019 World Oil Outlook 2040. In the publication’s Foreword, OPEC Secretary
General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo wrote “
...it is vital that all stakeholders have an understanding of our oil and energy futures given the great importance they have to our everyday lives. With much talk of an energy transition, we need to have a better appreciation of what this actually means and look to follow a realistic path that leads us to a sustainable energy future for all.” Barkindo took to the stage amid remarks
from Karin Kneissl, Austria’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Rainer Seele, Chief Executive Officer of OMV – the Austrian oil company that jointly sponsored the launch. “We have close to one billion people who still have no access to electricity... and almost three billion people still lack access to clean energy forms,” said Barkindo. “It is a universal obligation to address the major challenge of energy poverty as encapsulated in the UN SDGs [United Nations Sustainable Development Goals].”
Some highlights from this year’s WOO include:
• Total primary energy demand is set to expand by a robust 25 percent between 2018 and 2040.
• All forms of energies will be required in the future to help to meet expanding demand in a sustainable way, balancing the needs of people in relation to their social welfare, the economy and the environment.
• Natural gas witnesses the largest demand growth in absolute terms, and renewables the largest growth in percentage terms.
• Oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix throughout the forecast period to 2040.
• Oil demand is forecast to reach 110.6 mb/d by 2040.
• The non-OECD drives oil demand with growth of 21.4 mb/d by 2040 (compared to 2018), whereas the OECD region is expected to contract by 9.6 mb/d.
• Long-term demand growth comes mainly from the petrochemicals (4.1 mb/d), road transportation (2.9 mb/d) and aviation (2.4 mb/d) sectors.
• The total vehicle fleet – including passenger and commercial vehicles – is estimated to grow by more than 1 billion by 2040 to around 2.4 billion.
• The long-term share of electric vehicles in the total fleet is projected to reach a level of around 13 percent in 2040, supported by falling battery costs and policy support, but the majority of the growth continues to be for conventional vehicles.
• Energy poverty remains a major global challenge, with almost one billion people still without access to electricity and three billion lacking access to clean fuels for cooking.
• OPEC remains fully engaged and supportive of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
• The world needs to look for cleaner and more efficient technological solutions everywhere, across all available energies.
• The oil industry has to be part of the solution to climate change; it possesses critical resources and expertise that can help unlock our carbon- free future.
See
woo.opec.org for more information and to access the publication.
PHOTO: OPEC FUND/Steve Hughes SOURCE: OPEC
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