AVIATION
A BIG LEAP Depending on who you speak to, the next 12 months will be the biggest leap in the dark that the UK airline industry has faced for many years or it will merely be a time of a little turbulence to be navigated. It was either boundless confidence or baffling complacency that led the Department for Transport (DfT) to wait until June this year – almost two years to the day after the referendum – before advertising two key aviation roles to lead the airline industry through Brexit negotiations. With only nine months to go – which probably means, in practical terms, six months to do the job – the DfT began recruiting for two positions – a head of aviation EU exit negotiations and a head of airspace strategy – with no aviation experience necessary for either post. There are already teams beavering away behind the scenes at the DfT, but the experience of the leisure travel sector with a recent update to the EU Package Travel Regulations (PTR) does not inspire confidence about our right to fly unimpeded come next March. The EU updated the PTR in January but gave the unprepared UK until 1 July to implement it. The DfT issued the first set of guidance notes to the industry less than ten weeks before the July deadline and a definitive view only days before the new rules came into force, so expect negotiations on air traffic rights to go to the wire, too. In July, Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar warned that a no-deal Brexit effectively involving a border down the Irish Sea would have serious consequences for UK airlines: “If they want their planes to fly over Irish skies, they would need to take that into account,” he says, adding: “You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can’t take back your waters and then expect to take back other people’s sky.” If it ever comes to this, not being able to overfly Ireland would have a devastating effect on transatlantic flights, but it would also mean Irish carriers being unable to overfly the UK, so hopefully Varadkar’s comments can be taken with a pinch of salt. Rob Griggs, policy and public affairs director at trade
body Airlines UK, remains optimistic: “We are still confident that we can get a good agreement in terms
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of both access to the EU and around the agreements we have with the US and Canada,” he says. He adds that the EU has talked of a “bare bones agreement” to keep aircraft flying in the event that a full deal is not sealed after 31 March next year.
THE HEATHROW SAGA
In a saga even longer than the Brexit negotiations, MPs have finally approved plans to expand Heathrow, something that will be of most relief to its frequent users, who spend a disproportionate period of time queuing – both on the ground and in the sky – for its runway space.
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But if any regular flier thinks Parliament’s approval is the end of it, think again, because the MPs’ vote triggered a flurry of legal challenges that will run and run before any soil is dug. And then there is the question of who will pay for the third runway, with airlines expected to put up a fight if they are told to foot the bill, something that will further delay the process. It’s all, as they say, up in the air. And while there are probably quite enough disruptions and challenges, perhaps there will be more to come in March if, whatever Brexit deal is negotiated, the pound again starts to slide, pushing up UK airlines’ costs and hitting their profitability while handing the advantage to euro and dollar-based carriers. There’s certainly turbulence ahead, but it’s not the first time airlines have had to divert course to weather oncoming storms. How rough the journey will be remains to be seen, and those agile enough to adapt their innovation strategies stand to emerge stronger.
buyingbusinesstravel.com 2018 SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 89
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