WORDS ROB GILL
REPORT BACK
TRENDING UPWARD
G
LOBAL SPENDING ON BUSINESS travel is set to rise to more than US$1.4 trillion during 2018 thanks to strong worldwide economic growth, but further increases could be derailed by trade wars. Research from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) found global business travel spend rose by 5.8 per cent year-on-year to reach US$1.33 trillion in 2017. This was led by a nine per cent rise in China, the number one market for business travel with spending of US$346.5 billion. In the US, the second largest business travel market, spending increased 3.1 per cent to US$292 billion. UK business travel spend fell by 0.7 per cent in 2017 to US$50 billion, which the GBTA attributes to “a weakening pound, increased inflation and the associated pressure on consumer spending”. But there has been a
rebound, with UK business travel spend forecast to increase by 6.6 per cent in 2018 to US$53.3 billion. It is expected to rise to US$56 billion in 2019 and break through the US$60 billion mark in 2021.
ON THE UP
Global business travel spend is forecast to rise by 7.1 per cent to US$1.4 trillion in 2018, with 18 of the top 20 business travel markets set to outpace their average spending growth over the past five years. On current projections, total business travel spend will reach US$1.7 trillion by 2022. But the GBTA says going into 2019 there are “more downside risks” that could impede
buyingbusinesstravel.com GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL SPEND
$1.33 2 01 7
T RILLION
$1.7 202 2
T RILLION
growth, including rising US interest rates, protectionism and slowing economic growth in “developed” markets. Michael McCormick, GBTA’s executive director and chief operating officer, says: “The direction of trade policy is far and away the biggest wild card that could impact our forecast for global business creating uncertainty that could derail the recovery.”
TRADE WAR FEARS US president Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports from China, the
DATA
INDIA ON THE RISE predicted annual growth
5.2%
predicted annual growth in global business travel spend, 2018-2022
in business travel spend in India, 2018-2022
11.3% 2018
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EU and other countries has resulted in retaliatory measures stoking fears of an escalating trade war. GBTA says there is a clear correlation between world trade volumes and business travel spend. “Intuitively, this makes sense as the movement of goods and services necessitates people, namely business travellers, supporting global commerce,” says McCormick. China is expected to continue to be the top business travel market and is forecast to add another US$129 billion in spending by 2022, which would
take total expenditure to nearly US$500 billion per annum. The US market is predicted to reach US$354 billion by 2022. India and Indonesia are both forecast to grow at a faster rate than China over the next five years with an average annual rise in business travel spend of 11.3 per cent and 8.7 per cent respectively.
October 2015
GBTA BTI™ Outlook ANNUAL GLOBAL
REPORT & FORECAST
PROSPECTS FOR GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL 2018-2022 AUGUST 2018
$56 2019
BILLION
$53 2018
BILLION
$50 2 01 7
BILLION
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPEND IN UK
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 33
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