WESTMINSTER WATCH


WORDS GARETH MORGAN


ANOTHER ROLL OF THE DICE?


Don’t expect clarity from the government on Brexit any time soon, with Tory infighting set to intensify


I


T IS A PRETTY COMMON REFRAIN among public affairs people that “things are very fast-moving”. This is code for “we have no idea what’s going to happen”. And, to be frank, when we’re in the


dark about a situation, that’s a problem. We’re paid to know what’s happening and help clients prepare for it. But it’s not our fault, primarily because politicians don’t know what’s going on either. Here are some examples. Every week, Greg Clark, secretary of state for business, meets with the big business representative groups – CBI, British Chamber of


Commerce, etc – to hear what’s on their minds. On the face of it, this is a great way to discuss issues and concerns. But what most worries business groups is the impact of Brexit – the one question the minister can’t answer. Clark is a long- standing cabinet member but he doesn’t know what access to markets, finance or labour supply we will have in six months. Or take the meeting in August between


transport secretary Chris Grayling and road haulage bosses, including Kevin Hopper, managing director of Brian Yeardley Continental. Those in attendance


were apparently “astonished” at the lack of Brexit planning.


A rundown of the meeting on Twitter contained this memorable exchange: Grayling: What do you expect from me? Hopper: I expect clarity. Grayling: What do you mean? Hopper: I mean, I want clarity. Grayling: I can’t give you that. This has been (maybe uncharitably)


described as a lack of understanding, but Grayling is in the same position as Clark. He has no idea what will happen in six months’ time.


CHALLENGING TIMES Brussels has its models for engaging with the EU, while the Chequers deal envisages a bespoke arrangement. But a significant chunk of Conservative MPs want another model entirely. It’s a mess and things could be about to get worse.


WE MIGHT


HAVE A NEW TORY PM, CABINET AND BREXIT NEGOTIATING POLICY


Hardcore Brexiteers know that they have a small window to change the course back to their preferred option of No Deal/World Trade Organisation rules. They are furious about the Chequers deal (backed up by grassroots members) and this could lead to a leadership challenge. If this happens, all bets are off. By the end of October we might have a new Tory PM, cabinet and Brexit negotiating policy. Despite this, we would still have the same parliament – without a likely majority for a Hard Brexit and No Deal. This means a new PM might decide to break the impasse by rolling the dice again on a general election. Now there are a lot of “ifs” here but


this isn’t a flight of fancy, it’s a very real potential scenario. Buckle in for what could be a very rough ride.


Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and director at Cavendish Communications.


He is also an advisor to the GTMC, which represents travel management companies


52 SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2018 buyingbusinesstravel.com


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