WESTMINSTER WATCH


WORDS GARETH MORGAN


A CAUSE OF THE A380’S DEMISE


New aircraft flying point-to-point routes expose the flawed logic of hub airports, including Heathrow


In particular, will it challenge the primacy of the hub model in politicians’ minds? The logic has always been that hub


N


airports enable airlines to concentrate passenger traffic (from spokes) that enables them to connect city-pairs that could otherwise not be economically served on a nonstop basis. If you want the connections to these long-haul markets (which we do), then you need big, four-engine planes that can only be filled at hub airports.


EWS THAT THE AIRBUS A380 will cease production after 2021 was greeted with dismay by enthusiasts, but could it also have implications for decisions on airport capacity?


Political decisions have been made on the back of this logic, not least the decision to approve the expansion of Heathrow. Counter-arguments from Gatwick, in particular, tried to pick away at the hub concept and claim that point-to-point traffic was where the growth would be. Ultimately, the hub argument won out and the UK government backed a third runway at Heathrow, which enables the long-haul, hub-to-hub routes that business craves. But this logic (and the A380) has


potentially been undermined by the development of smaller, long-range planes that could economically overfly the hubs and directly connect smaller markets.


EVEN WHEN SPADES ARE IN THE GROUND, PROJECTS CAN BE UNDERMINED


The new generation of twin-engine planes that pioneered the use of lightweight carbon fibre and efficient engines has helped airlines drastically cut fuel expenses which enables them to use the aircraft on smaller point-to-point routes. Put it this way – in theory the economy around Newcastle can’t fill a 555-seat A380 to Beijing, but it might be able to fill a plane of 250. So what does this mean for UK public


policy? The Conservative government took the best part of a decade, with the aid of an independent commission, to decide that the hub should be expanded. Even then the prime minister had to burn a lot of personal political capital to formally agree to it. The efforts to get the decision over the line relied on ardent pro-trade MPs (often from the Brexit wing) and those representing regional economies denied access to Heathrow due to capacity constraints. These voices eventually overwhelmed those in the south-west of London. They aren’t likely to change their position


soon – airport capacity decisions are the super-tankers of politics and take a long, long time to alter course. But things can change. We should look at the current briefings against HS2 coming from across the political spectrum to see how, even when spades are in the ground, projects can be undermined or have their scope pruned. Political attention could turn more forcefully on regional policy. More point-to- point routes could focus political minds on the role of regional airports in developing economies outside of the south-east. These airports now have the potential to provide direct links, sustainable from local demand, to critical long-haul growth markets. Previously the peak of ambition may have been to ensure they connected into the national hub. Now many regional politicians may be revisiting that goal.


Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and director at Cavendish Communications.


He is also an advisor to the GTMC, which represents travel management companies


50 MARCH/APRIL 2019 buyingbusinesstravel.com


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108  |  Page 109  |  Page 110  |  Page 111  |  Page 112  |  Page 113  |  Page 114  |  Page 115  |  Page 116  |  Page 117  |  Page 118  |  Page 119  |  Page 120  |  Page 121  |  Page 122  |  Page 123  |  Page 124  |  Page 125  |  Page 126  |  Page 127  |  Page 128  |  Page 129  |  Page 130  |  Page 131  |  Page 132  |  Page 133  |  Page 134  |  Page 135  |  Page 136