Professional services Traditional farming ‘at risk’ of
climate-driven land use policy • Net zero target will have big impact • Farm businesses must adapt to survive • ‘Rewilding’ could be a viable option
F
arming in Norfolk could alter dramatically as the government pursues a net zero policy for agriculture to be- come carbon neutral, says a lead- ing analyst. Big changes are already ex- pected over the coming years as direct payments are phased out in favour of a new system of public support which will require farm- ers to undertake environmental measures on their land. But further radical change could be introduced as the gov- ernment strives to reduce and off- set greenhouse gas emissions in a bid to avert a climate crisis, be- lieves Emily Norton, head of ru- ral research at Savills. The government’s proposed Environmental Land Manage- ment Scheme (ELMS) will see
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Pursuing carbon efficiency in agriculture is going to be transformational
‘Rewilding’ suitable for some – but not others
Landscape-scale environmental schemes could prove lucrative for some farms and rural estates – but not for others.
Abandoning food production
in favour of controversial envi- ronmental schemes – such as re- wilding vast tracts of land, could
farmers receive payments based on environmental improvements and natural capital – such as car- bon stored under the soil, water and forests.
Less certainty
But ELMS does not reflect the broader political focus on ‘net zero’ climate policies and tree planting which has emerged as a key talking point, Ms Norton told a Rural Professionals Break- fast hosted by Savills at Dunston Hall, Norwich. “Farm businesses have even less certainty than before,” said Ms Norton. “It is understanda- ble that the NFU has engaged in a net zero approach to land use, but pursuing carbon efficiency in agriculture is going to be trans- formational. “The easiest way to reduce emissions from agriculture in the UK is to stop farming; but clear- ly we need to eat and importing food does not improve our carbon footprint.” Farmers had naturally been adopting a wait-and-see approach
make sense to some farmers in some situations – says Savills food and farming consultant Henry Barringer.
“On one hand you’ve got un- certainty over the availability of agro-chemicals, fertiliser prices, abstraction reform, volatility in weather patterns and commod- ity market prices. On the other, you’ve got grants for rewilding that offer up to £678/ha. “It won’t suit everyone, but for those with the right mind- set it could be a valuable alter- native.”
Direction of travel
The NFU believes UK agricul- ture can become carbon neutral by 2040 – a full decade before the target set by the government. But Ms Norton warned: “Farm busi- nesses need to be aware of the di- rection of travel in which net zero targets take us.” A report by the Committee on Climate Change had already sug- gested half of all UK arable land should be released to environ- mental adaptation. Meeting the net zero target would require fur- ther adaptations, said Ms Norton. “If we’re to produce the same amount of food, this signals a ma- jor shift to innovations like con- trolled environment agriculture – removing food production from the soil,” she said.
The climate debate could fast- track agricultural innovation, says Emily Norton
Savills head of rural research
Emily Norton suggests farmers and landowners should create a register of their natural capi- tal – similar to those they keep for machinery and buildings – to help identify earning oppor- tunities and risks from environ- mental management. “There is still no clear idea over what the funding for ELMS will be, so even if financial assis- tance is available it might not be at the same level – and de- spite rumours it is unlikely to be paid to most farmers simply
“This wet autumn has high- lighted the financial and physi- cal costs of ‘conventional’ farming using machines in fields to harvest vegetable and root crops. Net zero, climate change and technological innovation all suggest that more indoor production is inevitable for a variety of crops.”
on an area basis.
“It will be conditional on en- vironmental delivery, which will need to be supported by ev- idence that the money is actu- ally achieving improvements in resource management. “At the same time, farmers might be expected to meet as yet unknown net zero land use targets for tree planting, carbon offsetting and land use change. Some of these might be carrot – being income generating and profitable – but some might take the form of a stick.”
DECEMBER 2019 • ANGLIA FARMER 55
to accessing ELMS – but the cli- mate debate could fast-track ag- ricultural innovation and signal the end of sustainable agricul- ture, said Ms Norton.
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