48 Economic trEnds by José I. Duarte
Construction
TAbLe 1 - Consumption of Cement and Concrete
tonnes
Usually, the construction sector is
usually a good gauge of economic
600
cycles. When everyone appears
to be concentrating on the effects
500
of the financial crisis, it is probably
worth noting that the signs of an
economic slowdown were already
400
becoming apparent well before the
explosion came. A few indicators
300
from that sector will help to make
it clear.
TAbLe 1
200
See, first, Table 1, which displays
the published data for cement and
100
concrete usage. We have almost
uninterrupted growth through the
period until early 2006; a short
0 slowdown follows during the
02Q1 02Q3 03Q1 03Q3 04Q1 04Q3 05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3
remainder of that year.
A new peak is then reached in
cement concrete the second quarter of 2007. Since
then, we see a sustained decline,
bringing the latest data to levels
comparable to those registered
TAbLe 2 - Construction sector: Hourly average wage
three years ago. That means five
quarters in a row of continuous
mop
decrease, a fact that certainly
250
suggests that the sector has
entered the contraction phase
of the cycle.
TAbLe 2
200
An almost similar tale is told by
Table 2. This probably reflects
some stickiness in wages making
them react more slowly to changes
in economic activity, the declining
150
trend starts with a delay of about
half year.
but the decrease in wages also
100
suggests less demand pressures
on the market. Note, in passim,
02Q1 02Q3 03Q1 03Q3 04Q1 04Q3 05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3
that average wages in the sector
rose almost two and a half times in
about five years since the first half
of 2003 - a notable figure indeed.
TAbLe 3
Finally, Table 3 shows the changes
TAbLe 3 - Real estate Transactions (Quarterly Homologous Growth) in growth rates for the value of real
estate transactions. The growth
%
figures started to decline very
200
fast at the beginning of 2007 and
have actually been negative for
150
the last full year. The effects of the
financial crisis will only be seen in
100 the next periods, and certainly the
slowdown - on the evidence given
50 here - cannot be attributed to it.
0
-50
-100
02Q1 02Q3 03Q1 03Q3 04Q1 04Q3 05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3
Total residential
december 2008
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