22 Opinion
Jose I. Duarte
economist, macau business Senior Analyst
jid@macaubusiness.com
A tough year ahead
A
S is customary at this time of year, we ask what the coming instance, we have the changes in visa policies. The concern is
year might bring. Unfortunately, unless there are major not so much over their actual effect on revenue, but because
attitute shifts in the body politic, the answer is a lot, much of it they raise issues about the relationship and cooperation levels
not good. between the mainland authorities and the local government.
The economy is slowing down fast on the fact that trends We will probably have to wait for the next executive to see
already at play are being compounded. Sooner or later, a things clarified.
slump in investment had to come and the unlimited growth of On the political side, two issues came to the fore: Article
expectations that drove investment plans in the city’s casinos 23 and the non-resident labour force. No matter what the
and associated facilities would have to come to terms with intentions of those involved, the doubts raised about certain
reality. grey areas of the proposed legislation on Article 23, if not
Obvious in this reality are the combined effects of properly addressed, will inevitably be seen as aimed at limiting
infrastructure and traffic problems, labour market imbalances the openness of the political debate and stimulating media self-
and social tensions, to name but a few. censorship.
It was inevitable that some of the foreseen investments The proposal to specifically identify resident and non-
would have to be re-assessed, some were already in the slow resident workers in casinos hits the “jackpot”. It seems clear that
lane, if not actually suspended for all practical purposes. The this violates the basic Law and international conventions which
financial crisis only made that re-assessment unavoidable the region is obliged to follow. both situations raise concerns
and more urgent. On the bright side, the crisis will help about the steadiness of the principles and social foundations
rescue macau’s casino operators from themselves, providing upon which a place like macau is supposed to be built.
a pause and an opportunity to review the aims and needs of Not to mention that they appear at odds with the history and
the process and work out what is required to get back on a culture of the place, or its supposed role as the second system
secure track. in the wider framework of Greater china.
It is a time for the local community to develop and put It is fair to note that the only local politician that has
forward a new vision and build a common and shared will. recently stood up against this kind of anti-resident tide was the
Unfortunately, the social and political situation does not bode president of the Legislative Assembly: is she the only one that
well for the kind of soul-searching or re-appraisal that dealing still remembers what it means to come to a new land to make a
with the economic stresses requires. new life?
First, we have a weakened government in its final year The combination of an economic crisis and a political
and, as a result, limited in its ability to set in motion major system that fails to represent the community adequately and
initiatives. The uncertainties associated with the transition at the same time seems incapable of reforming itself and
only accentuate that fragility. becoming more inclusive, is not a good one.
Secondly, as so often happens in times of great change moreover, the longer this situation lasts and adequate
and weak political institutions, the local polity is displaying responses fail to materialise, the more likelihood that the
some difficulty in putting together a consistent and inclusive external framework for the local economy in the region will start
approach. And they do not seem able or ready to think to change.
beyond their immediate concerns or those of their close macau may also be facing new regional operators and
constituencies. dealing with a chinese population with increasing alternatives,
Quite the opposite infact, they appear to be resorting to both for travel, shopping and gambling.
time tested “defences’’ in difficult times: blaming ‘others’ and It is often said that times of crisis are also times of
promoting discriminatory attitudes or rules against them; opportunity. For that to be the case, a polity that spurns the
encouraging critical nationalism; sticking to sound bytes and cheap prescriptions of populism and blind patriotism is needed.
apparently easy solutions, without too much concern for facts recent political developments have failed that test of clear
or pondered reflection. mindedness. The next few months will show whether the local
Some recent developments have contributed to more actors are up to the challenge.
uncertainty about the future. On the economic side, for but 2009 is not likely to be remembered as the best of years.
december 2008
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100 |
Page 101 |
Page 102 |
Page 103 |
Page 104 |
Page 105 |
Page 106 |
Page 107 |
Page 108 |
Page 109 |
Page 110 |
Page 111 |
Page 112 |
Page 113 |
Page 114 |
Page 115 |
Page 116 |
Page 117 |
Page 118 |
Page 119 |
Page 120 |
Page 121 |
Page 122 |
Page 123 |
Page 124 |
Page 125 |
Page 126 |
Page 127 |
Page 128 |
Page 129 |
Page 130 |
Page 131 |
Page 132 |
Page 133 |
Page 134 |
Page 135 |
Page 136 |
Page 137 |
Page 138 |
Page 139 |
Page 140 |
Page 141 |
Page 142 |
Page 143 |
Page 144 |
Page 145 |
Page 146 |
Page 147 |
Page 148