BABC
The British American Business Council is committed to promoting transatlantic trade and investment between the US and the UK
Contact: Lauren Hunt T: 0845 603 6650
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What the world can expect fromTrump
Dr Steve Hewitt (pictured), of the Department of History and the American and Canadian Studies Centre at the University of Birmingham, has a stab at understanding Donald Trump and what his presidency will mean for both the USA and the rest of the world.
On 20 January, an event that was barely imaginable 18 months ago took place. Donald John Trump became the 45th President of the United States of America. Why did this occur and what it will mean for the next four years? The answers do not come easily First, despite his victory and his boasting
about his victory, Trump’s triumph was far from overwhelming. For the fifth time in US history, the winning candidate lost the popular vote. But due to the nature of the US Electoral College system, a deficit of over 2.5 million votes to Hillary Clinton did not translate into defeat for Trump. So why did Trump win? He did so because of
a weak Democratic candidate who was almost perceived as negatively by the American public as Trump is. The Democratic downturn combined with
Trump’s strong message of economic nationalism intertwined with tough talk on immigration and infused with patriotism allowed him to capture several key states.
Most of all,
Trump promised change. What this means for the next four years inside and outside the United States can be summarised in one word: disruption. Trump is a rich and privileged outsider who is beholden to no-one within the American political system or wider society. His tweets in the lead up to his inauguration clearly demonstrates that he will differ from past precedent by not conforming to perceived political norms. Growing American isolationism both militarily
and economically seems inevitable. This shift will cause friction not just with American rivals such as China but also with American allies. At home, a crackdown on illegal immigrants,
greater pressure on American Muslims and the potential for millions to lose their health insurance with the repeal of Obamacare will lead to even greater divisions, conflict, and unrest than has been witnessed in the past eight years.
Will Brexit change the relationship?
Sir Nigel Sheinwald, former UK ambassador to the US and non-executive director, Royal Dutch Shell, examines how Brexit may impact the UK’s relationship with the US.
Providing reassurance in the wake of the UK’s decision to leave the EU, President Obama remarked that the two nations’ special relationship would endure and that the UK - and the EU - would remain ‘indispensable partners’ of the United States. And many business leaders were quick to
convey their enduring confidence in the vitality, creativity and pragmatism that have long powered the British American businesses that underpin the UK and US economies. But there are reasons for business and
political leaders in the United States to feel a level of disquiet. As the former US ambassador to London, Raymond Seitz, stated 20 years ago, the stronger Britain is in Brussels, the stronger in Washington, Beijing, Delhi and vice versa. The UK’s role has often been to interpret
America to a sometimes sceptical Europe, and explain European interests and sensitivities to the
more unilateralist American superpower and ‘gateway’ business stands to have less EU market access. The UK economy has attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of US investment by projecting itself as the gateway to the European single market. Now, faced with significant uncertainty, the
simple truth is that the UK will be a less useful and potent ally for the United States. For all its imperfections, the EU remains a global player and the UK will no longer be at the table. Ensuring the UK does not encounter a sapping of influence in the decades ahead will require a demanding mixture of political will, unity and vision. Paradoxically perhaps, the UK’s traditional bridging role in transatlantic relations now passes to the United States. The US should continue to be a candid adviser
to the UK and can also make clear that PM Theresa May’s commitment to a globally responsible UK should be backed up by real actions.
Sir Nigel Sheinwald Above all, the US can remind the May
government that British foreign policy outside the EU needs to place a premium on collaboration with the EU, the main regional power. There are also important US messages to the
EU. With real political and economic interests at stake, the US has every right to ask for an orderly and transparent process and should push the EU to find an innovative way to maintain real-time co-operation between the UK and EU on foreign policy and security.
February 2017 CHAMBERLINK 29
Transatlantic conference 2017
The 2017 British-American Business Council transatlantic conference will be held in Chicago on 10-11 May. The two-day conference will explore the
2017 theme ‘Navigating the New World,’ and will focus on evolving opportunities. The event will open with a cocktail reception on 10 May at Shedd Aquarium, and the conference will take place on the following day at the Cathedral Room of the University Club. On the same day, there will be a gala
dinner in the Terzo Piano Modern Wing of the Art Institute of Chicago, which will feature American political satirist and journalist PJ O’Rourke (pictured) as guest speaker. Early bird tickets for
the conference are available until 28 February.
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