2015 FORECAST BY AMON COHEN
AUTUMN, JOHN KEATS TELLS US, is the “season of mists and mellow fruit- fulness”. It is also, though curiously the great Romantic poet neglects to mention this point, the season of fat annual pricing forecasts thudding on to the virtual desktops of travel managers. So what do the 2015 crop tell us about how much companies will pay for travel in the year ahead? At time of writing, only Advito (the consulting wing of BCD Travel) and GBTA Foundation/Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT) had issued their documents, with American Express yet to publish and Egencia opting not to join in for 2015. Often, the only thing one can forecast with any certainty is that these companies’ predictions will contradict each other, but actually that isn’t correct this time. True, the Advito and GBTA/CWT’s figures don’t wholly align on air pricing, but the broad
Airfare and hotel rate rises in Europe will generally be modest
conclusions are the same. Airfare and hotel rate rises in Europe will generally be modest (London hotel prices being a major exception), but elsewhere in the world, it is hotel rates that will be the big worry rather than airfares. What is more, Advito and GBTA/CWT are remarkably consistent on hotel rates. For example, Advito quotes a 1-3 per cent range for Europe and 5-7 per cent for Latin America, while GBTA/CWT plumps for figures of 1 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively.
The background to both reports’ think- ing is that demand for business travel will expand in 2015, whereas supply will remain limited. Advito cites a forecast by Oxford Economics that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will improve from 2.6 per cent this year to 3.1 per cent in 2015. “Muted advances in travel supply will begin to put upward pressure on rates, particularly in high-demand travel markets,” GBTA/CWT concludes.
IMPROVING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Yet, as GBTA/CWT’s own figures, and those from Advito, attest, there are no pre- dictions of the rampant price inflation one might expect this growing supply/demand imbalance to cause. That’s because the story is more complicated, as Advito explains. “Companies will want to travel more, as economic conditions continue to improve in 2015,” its Industry Forecast
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2015 WE ASK THE EXPERTS
Name one trend or likely development you think will demand buyers’ attention in 2015
JEF ROBINSON Global category manager, Citrix
I expect travel apps to continue tempting corporate travellers away from corporate booking tools, leading to calls for TMCs [travel management companies] to innovate to counter this trend.
PETER BRODBECK Head of global travel, Syngenta Ancillary fees will grow
BUYINGBUSINESSTRAVEL.COM
more and more as airlines unbundle to offset falling fares. There may be some security issues, given the numerous political and medical crises we are seeing globally.
CAMILLA LAGESEN Travel manager, Kongsberg Buyers will need to commit to long-term relationships with a limited number of suppliers. We need viable suppliers.
JO GREENFIELD UK general manager, FCM Travel Solutions Duty-of-care and travel risk
management will command greater attention in the procurement process. Given the increase in global travel risks and terrorism threats, we see this topic coming more to the forefront of buyers’ minds and they will need effective real-time solutions that integrate well into the travel procurement workflow.
PAUL WAIT CEO, Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC) Buyers will need to find new ways of capturing the sentiment and
interests of their
travellers to maintain and improve compliance. Recommendation and word-of-mouth are ever-more important and becoming increasingly transparent.
DEAN FORBES CEO, KDS The emergence of on- demand services such as Airbnb and Uber is putting incredible spending power in the hands of travellers at the moment of booking. There is less planning or thought – these are ‘just in time’ services.
BBT NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014 49
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100