Power | Mott MacDonald
Tarbela Dam, Pakistan
a true super grid would minimise opportunity for any one dominant power-supplying country to hold others to ransom, as those countries could turn to another supplier connection instead. Such a grid could also reduce the intermittency risk associated with renewables. The beginnings of a super grid are already visible in the development of a number of bilateral links in northwest Europe. All this effort to develop and construct renewable generation, smart grids and HVDC lines could be squandered if power systems are not made resilient to the extreme weather events expected to occur more frequently as a result of climate change. New and existing infrastructure alike must be made capable of standing up to wind, snow, extreme temperatures, floods, and rising tides and erosion.
Recent extreme cold and snow in the USA, and storms and flooding in the UK, have demonstrated how weather events can compromise power supply to communities, and the Fukushima disaster exposed the dangers of a vulnerable power plant.
Resilience can be achieved in numerous ways, for example by locating critical infrastructure away from hazardous zones such as flood plains. In the case of transmission and distribution lines, this could mean placing cables underground. Infrastructure can also be armed with defences such as flood walls and temperature regulation systems. Infrastructure operators can also establish contingency plans to ensure alternative supply routes and rapid service restoration – smart grids are particularly useful in this regard.
Moreover, infrastructure must also be resilient to future shifts in technology and demand. Power systems should be upgraded or constructed with an eye on the technological horizon, to ensure they can accommodate future innovations such as superconductors, thorium fuel and nuclear fusion. Global focus on resilience is still relatively low on the agenda, but must increase significantly if power systems are ever to reach the utopian position. And yet, increased focus is only part of the story. None of these developments can come to fruition without funding, and the sums required worldwide will be daunting. To ensure sustainable and secure power and gas supplies in the UK alone and just until 2025, energy regulator Ofgem predicted that between £95 billion and £200 billion of investment was needed between 2010 and 2020. With the world still recovering from financial crisis, institutions and individuals – whether investors, governments or customers – may be unwilling or unable to pay for the upgrades needed. On the other hand, failing to move toward the utopian position could result in unstable and interrupted power supplies, inability to integrate new technologies including renewables, dependence on imported energy and exposure to political turbulence ‘upstream’, financial burdens from rising fossil fuel and carbon prices, vulnerability to extreme climate events, and sustained carbon emissions that raise the planet’s temperature to a dangerous degree. The utopian position may be
idealistic, and it will certainly be challenging and expensive to achieve. Progress is being made worldwide on varying scales, but much more must be done. Global power systems are at a critical phase on the brink of transformation, and every nation will imminently have to face up to one difficult question: can we afford not to do this?
GO
West Bay Area Substation, Qatar
FURTHER INFORMATION For Dr Prem Mahi’s further analysis of power sector challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa, visit
www.mottmac.com/news
global-opportunity.co.uk ISSUE 01 | GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY 2014 165
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