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COUNTRY ANALYSIS


US Trident Ballistic Missile Submarine


US Trident Test Firing II


USS Ohio Ballistic Missile Submarine


reactor went the same way as the Iraqi nuclear facility at Osirak when Israeli aircraſt flew nearly 1,000 nm to attack the facility just outside Baghdad. It was an audacious raid and one that provides the model for many commentators looking at the problems Israel would have today in mounting an attack on Iran.


Using - and abusing - intelligence Bombing a nuclear facility once it has been built is a risky exercise. The aſtermath of the attack can oſten contain surprises that were unforeseen. In a world where being proactive and not reactive is seen to provide more stable outcomes, the question of how to detect a state moving along the pathway to developing an indigenous nuclear weapons capability is one worthy of some discussion.


Intelligence services around the world are always on


the lookout for warnings and indicators. These are items of information that can be collected by a range of means that enable a picture to be assembled of a state’s ambitions and activities. These can be likened to pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. For those trying to fit the pieces together the problem is that they have no real idea what the front cover looks like. As the debacle over the intelligence picture that was


assembled on Iraq’s actual CBRN capabilities rumbles on, what is clear is that the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle were fitted together in a way that suited the prevailing political drivers. The analysis was driven by a number of expectations rather than being truly subjective. Given the abject failure of the analysis over Iraq, where too much emphasis was placed on specific sources, the question of how to conduct more objective assessments is one worthy of debate.


Analysing states Table 1 overleaf provides a possible step in a more involved and rigorous approach. It shows an example of a framework of analysis that is less subjective for a hypothetical country


 CBNW 2013/01 25


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