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COMMENT


whilst a dedicated new high-speed line is desirable, it would be at least 25 years be- fore such a scheme could be delivered, at a cost of over £15bn. A pragmatic approach would see a series of ongoing upgrades to the existing rail corridor,2


with electrifi-


cation as the foundation. This approach would deliver significant benefits in terms of capacity, journey times and Heathrow access, which collectively will help provide a stimulus to the Welsh economy and miti- gate the impact of HS2. A deliverable target is Cardiff to London journey times of less than 80 minutes at least twice an hour, and Cardiff to Heathrow journey times of less than 90 minutes at least twice an hour.


It is anticipated that these performance criteria can be delivered from a range of enhancements to both infrastructure and service patterns, for example:


• In the first instance, for inclusion in CP5 (Network Rail’s 2015-2019 planning pe- riod), a new western link should be con- structed to Heathrow from the GWML. BAA recently cancelled plans for Air- track, which would have linked Heath- row Terminal 5 to the Staines-Windsor commuter line from Reading (in blue on diagram). A far better option for Swan- sea, Cardiff, Newport, Bristol, Swindon and the Thames Valley is a new western route into Terminal 5 to link up with the existing Heathrow express line as shown in red (from Network Rail’s Great West- ern RUS). This would allow a Heathrow express service to operate from Reading to serve passengers from South Wales, South West England and the Thames Valley.


• In addition, a series of ongoing incre- mental upgrades to the GWML (see diagram) should be implemented over the next 15 years, which will allow non- stop services to run at speeds of more than 140mph. The GWML should also be integrated with HS2 and HS1 to allow through-services to Europe. In terms of ‘termination’ stations in South Wales, aside from Cardiff Central, considera- tion should be given to: Pontypridd, Car- diff Airport (new station) and Swansea Parkway (new station).


• Given the ~145 miles distance between Cardiff and Paddington, an 80-minute journey would require an average speed of approximately 109mph. As a compar- ator, the WCML service between Man- chester Piccadilly and Euston, as a result of its £9bn upgrade, now provides a 1hr 58m service for the 185-mile journey, at an average speed of ~95mph (on a line with a max running speed of 125mph). Even achieving this average speed on the GWML between Cardiff and Paddington


rail technology magazine Jun/Jul 11 | 29


would deliver a journey time of approxi- mately 90 minutes.


A complementary investment in a Cardiff City Region Metro


As has been demonstrated across Europe, to maximise the returns from the invest- ment in high-speed rail between cities, there also needs to be a complementary in- vestment in city or city region transport in- frastructure. The same applies to the Great Western Corridor. Specifically, the Cardiff Metro presents just such an opportunity and one which, using the planned electri- fication of the valley lines as a catalyst, can be delivered incrementally over perhaps 15 years from 2015.


It is essential therefore that the DfT and Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) com- mission a strategic, Great Western Corri- dor study to develop a clear business case, with a focus on the wider economic ben- efits, for a programme of incremental up- grades to the GWML. This work should be undertaken on the same basis as the work undertaken to date by the DfT in develop- ing the business case for HS2. After all, the wider Severnside region has a population in excess of 5m people and includes the Cardiff City Region (1.4m), Swansea City Region (0.5m) and the Bristol City Region (more than 1m). (IMAGE 5)


A turn-up-and-go Metro would offer a jour- ney of less than 40 minutes to Cardiff from Merthyr, with Valleys electrification as the core of the network, augmented with tram/ tram-train/guided bus services. There would be economic regeneration at key interchanges, and a single ‘network’ with through-ticketing.


The benefits to the Cardiff City Region are significant. It could:


• Stimulate economic growth throughout the region, leading to increased gross value added per capita, versus the UK;


• Major modal shift (20% plus) and reduc- tion in CO2 emissions;


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