COMMENT
In February, the Cardiff Business Partnership & The Institute of Welsh Affairs published Mark Barry’s report “A Metro for Wales’ Capital City Region - Connecting Cardiff, Newport and the Valleys”. Here, he makes the case for further investment on the Great Western Corridor, alongside the development of the Cardiff Metro, to mitigate the negative economic impact on Wales and SW England resulting from HS2.
T
he new high-speed line from Lon- don to Birmingham, Manchester and
Leeds (HS2) will bring most major Eng- lish and Scottish cities at least 30 minutes closer to London; for example, Manchester to London in 1hr 15m. The DfT also calcu- lates economic benefits in excess of £40bn, with the first phase alone generating over 40,000 jobs.
lower annual growth in Wales to 2040; and £600 lower income, on average, in 2040.
If the DfT believes that additional ex- penditure is necessary to mitigate the en- vironmental impacts of HS2, then surely the same logic means that proportionate investment must be made on the GWML to mitigate the economic impact on Wales and South West England.
This is especially important given that Welsh taxpayers will be paying for HS2, alongside those in England (see graph, bot- tom of page).
Cardiff City Region Current plans for the GWML (IMAGE 1)
In response, the Cardiff Business Partner- ship believe that in addition to electrifica- tion, a major upgrade to the GWML is es- sential if Cardiff is to remain competitive in both UK and European terms. This is espe- cially important given that Greengauge21/ KPMG found that HS2 would have a nega- tive impact on the Welsh economy,1
there-
by restricting Cardiff’s capacity to address Wales’ deteriorating GVA/capita versus the UK average.
That report found that HS2 would result in 21,000 fewer jobs in Wales to 2040; 0.04 %
The Cardiff City Region, home to 1.4m peo- ple within 20 miles of the city centre (half the Welsh population), has the potential to transform Welsh economic performance. Cardiff itself contains a leading UK Rus- sell Group university, has a diversifying employment base, has achieved amongst the largest UK growth in the private sector, and now has ~80,000 inward commuters in a total workforce of nearly 200,000.
From a business perspective, transport connectivity is crucial – especially inter- and intra-regional transport. For example, Admiral Insurance, a leading member of the Cardiff Business Partnership and one of Wales’ leading companies, with over 3,000 staff and a £4bn-plus market capitalisation, has made recent statements
In March 2011, the DfT announced that the GWML would be electrified (alongside the introduction of ERTMS) as far as Car- diff; returning Cardiff-Paddington journey times to those that existed in 1980, at 1hr 45m. However, given the journey time ben- efits that will accrue to cities on HS2, the electrification programme will still leave Cardiff at a significant disadvantage.
This will continue a trend that that has seen journeys from Cardiff to London go from 30 minutes faster to 20 minutes slower when compared to the journey from Manchester to London.
However, there is an opportunity to devel- op a more strategic and ambitious vision for the GWML and one that could see a TOC and Network Rail develop a far closer, longer term and more cost-effective part- nership, as McNulty recently recommend- ed. This, in part, is due to FGW’s decision, in May 2011, not to take up the option to extend their franchise beyond 2013, bring- ing forward the tendering process for the route.
Opportunities for economic genera- tion
The Cardiff Business Partnership believes the electrification programme and fran- chising process should be used as a catalyst to develop and implement a long term and incremental upgrade of the Great Western Corridor. This position acknowledges that
28 | rail technology magazine Jun/Jul 11
on public transport that provide a stark warning:
• Admiral would not locate in Cardiff to- day with a more than two-hour travel time to London;
• Improved connectivity to Heathrow may be needed to maintain a Cardiff HQ in the long term;
• The provision of an effective Cardiff City Region public transit system is essential for the long-term success of its business.
These statements underline the need to invest in transport connectivity to help ad- dress Wales’ economic problems.
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