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EZ SU NFL WEEK 14
KLMNO 6
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2010
THE LEAGUE: The Post’s blog is your place for all things NFL during the season.
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New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
4:15 p.m.,WUSA-9,WJZ-13, Patriots by 3
The Bears have won five straight since their bye. They have allowed 192 points (16 per game), the third-fewest in the NFL. The Bears’ Devin Hester is tied with BrianMitchell for the league record with 13 career kick returns for TDs (nine punts, four kickoffs). NewEngland is coming off back-to-back 45-point showings and is averaging a league-high 31.6 points. QB Tom Brady has gone seven straight games without an interception.
SMARTER STATS: The 2010 Patriots, with their two-tight end sets, multiple rushing options, and comparative lack of deep threats, are on pace to exceed the efficiency metrics of the most explosive offense of all time—the 2007 Patriots.
USERS PICKING THE PATRIOTS 78% GAMESNOTONTELEVISION
Cleveland at Buffalo 1 p.m., Bills by 1
MATCHUP
Since the Browns rejoined the NFL in 1999, they have had only two winning seasons; the Bills have one in the same span. Buffalo is on its fifth coach (six including Perry Fewell, who finished last season on an interim basis), while Cleveland is on its fourth (fifth including Terry Robiskie, who finished 2004 season as an interim coach).
Atlanta at Carolina 1 p.m., Falcons by 7
FalconsWRRoddyWhite is second in the NFL with 91 catches.WR Steve Smith tops Carolina with 39. The Panthers average a league-low 12.8 points and 261.2 yards per game. QB Jimmy Clausen has gone more than two months and thrown 169 passes since his lone TD pass of season. Clausen has two of Carolina’s five INTs returned for TDs.
Oakland at Jacksonville 1 p.m., Jaguars by 4
Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew seeks his sixth consecutive game with at least 100 yards rushing. He had a career-high 186 last week. Raiders RB Darren McFadden needs 130 yards to become the first Oakland player since Justin Fargas in 2007 to rush for 1,000 yards in a season.
Green Bay at Detroit 1 p.m., Packers by 61/2
Detroit is 0-7 in games decided by eight points or fewer, the only team in the league without a win in those games. Green Bay leads the NFL in scoring differential at plus 121. Their poor record aside, the Lions have been outscored by a total of only 28 this season. LionsWRCalvin Johnson has 12 TDs in the first 12 games this season.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1 p.m., Steelers by 81/2
, WJZ-13 in Baltimore market
The Steelers have allowed one 100-yard rusher in 46 games and lead the NFL by limiting opponents to 62.2 yards rushing per game. Only one team (New England) has rushed for 100 yards against them this season. The Bengals have lost nine in a row. The club record is 11, during the 1992-93 seasons.
St. Louis at NewOrleans 4:05 p.m., Saints by 9
Saints QB Drew Brees threw for 313 yards last week, giving him 21,932 yards since joining New Orleans in 2006, the most by a QB in any five- year span in NFL history. St. Louis RB Steven Jackson needs 15 yards rushing to become the first Rams player with six straight 1,000-yard seasons.
Seattle at San Francisco 4:05 p.m., 49ers by 5
The Seahawks have lost four of six after starting 4-2 but are still tied with St. Louis atop the weak NFCWest. San Francisco could be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. The Niners need more from their ground game with Frank Gore out. BrianWestbrook and Anthony Dixon had 31 and 33 yards rushing, respectively, last week.
Miami at NewYork Jets 4:15 p.m., Jets by 51/2
The Jets are coming off their worst loss since a 45-3 defeat to the Dolphins in 1986. Coach Rex Ryan buried the game ball near the team’s practice facility a few days after last week’s 45-3 loss to the Patriots. Despite having RBs Ronnie Brown and RickyWilliams, the Dolphins have yet to have a 100-yard rusher this season.
Denver at Arizona 4:15 p.m., Broncos by 4
The Cardinals are the only NFL team that hasn’t beaten Denver. The Broncos are the only team the Cardinals haven’t beaten. Newly signed Arizona QB Richard Bartel was hog hunting in Texas when contacted by the Cardinals. He was the backup to Daunte Culpepper at Sacramento of the UFL, whose coach was ex-Cardinals coach Dennis Green.
Kansas City at San Diego 4:15 p.m., Chargers by 91/2
The four-time defending AFCWest champion Chargers would be eliminated from the division race with a loss. They would be three games behind the Chiefs with three to play, and would have been swept by K.C.. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel underwent an appendectomy Wednesday. His status for game is uncertain.
NewYork Giants at Minnesota Monday, time TBA, Giants by 3, WBFF-45 in Baltimore market
The Giants have not allowed a sack in five games, a franchise record. They have allowed just 12 all season, best in the NFL. Giants QB Eli Manning has never beaten the Vikings, going 0-4. After leading the league in fumbles last year, Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has gone 276 touches in a row without one.
AFC EAST
W L T PCT. PF PA
New England ..... 10 2 0 .833 379 269 N.Y. Jets ............. 9 3 0 .750 267 232 Miami .................. 6 6 0 .500 215 238 Buffalo ................ 2 10 0 .167 243 333
SOUTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Jacksonville ........ 7 5 0 .583 257 300 Indianapolis ........ 7 6 0 .538 347 318 Houston .............. 5 7 0 .417 288 321 Tennessee ........... 5 8 0 .385 291 265
NORTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Pittsburgh ........... 9 3 0 .750 267 191 Baltimore ............ 8 4 0 .667 260 201 Cleveland ............ 5 7 0 .417 229 239 Cincinnati ............ 2 10 0 .167 255 322
WEST W L T PCT. PF PA
Kansas City ......... 8 4 0 .667 295 237 Oakland ............... 6 6 0 .500 283 269 San Diego ............ 6 6 0 .500 323 253 Denver ................ 3 9 0 .250 256 333
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
8:20 p.m.,WRC-4,WBAL-11, Eagles by 4
The Cowboys and Eagles are the only NFL teams with four receivers who have at least 475 yards each. Philadelphia is the only NFL team averaging 400 total yards a game, and its 144 rushing yards average is the highest in 12 seasons under Coach Andy Reid. Dallas LB DeMarcusWare is only a half-sack shy of his fifth consecutive season with at least 10 sacks.
SMARTER STATS: It’s all well and good that the Cowboys are 3-1 in the Jason Garrett era, but let’s hold off on the 2011 Super Bowl predictions. Of the three teams they’ve beaten since Garrett took over (the Giants, Lions, and Colts), only the G-Men aren’t in total free fall or trying to find their way.
USERS PICKING THE EAGLES 76% SMARTER STATS
On offense, these two teams are about as evenly matched as could be. It’s 311.8 to 305.4 yards per game in Buffalo’s favor; 111.4 to 107.9 rushing yards per game, with the Browns in the lead; tied in first downs per game with 17.3; and 20.3 points per game for the Bills to 19.1 for the Browns. On defense, the Browns have some advantages.
The Falcons have converted an amazing 48 percent of their third downs. The main reason for that isWhite. On that down, QB Matt Ryan has foundWhite 27 times for 420 yards and three TDs. The 1-11 Panthers struggle with a lot of things (mostly on offense), but they are 16th in third-down defense against the pass.
Quarterback No. 1 averages 8.9 yards per pass, 6.5 per completion, an interception rate of 3.4 percent, and gets 5.95 yards after the catch per play. Quarterback No. 2 also averages 8.9 yards per pass with 5.9 yards per completion, 6.79 yards after the catch and a 2.9 percent interception rate. No. 1 is Donovan McNabb. No. 2 is Jason Campbell.
The percentage of shotgun formations has tripled in the NFL over the past decade, but the 2010 Lions go shotgun on an amazing 67.3 percent of their offensive plays. They have the NFL’s second-worst per- play efficiency in non-shotgun sets, and they’re averaging just 3.6 yards per non-shotgun play, the lowest in the league.
Why have the Bengals lost nine straight games? A host of reasons, but we can start with the fact that few teams put themselves in bigger holes early in drives, or need more production on first down. However, no team has converted more fourth-down attempts or a better percentage of them than the Bengals—85 percent (11 of 13).
You’d expect that as their offense coalesces and Reggie Bush gets healthy, the Saints would get their game back on track. The numbers back it up. FromWeeks 1-9, New Orleans ranked 12th in Football Outsiders’ offensive metric; they’ve raised that to second inWeeks 10-13. But the Rams have seen a similar uptick down the stretch.
No team has given up more receptions of 20 yards or more than the Seahawks, but they have little to worry about from San Francisco QB Alex Smith, who returns to his starting spot this week. Among qualifying starters, only Carolina’s Jimmy Clausen has fewer plays of 20 yards or more than Smith, who has managed just 16 on 242 attempts.
Who is the AFC’s best third down receiver? Davone Bess of the Miami Dolphins, a third-year undrafted free agent. Bess has caught 26 third- down passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns, and he has 35 first downs overall. As good as the Jets’ defense has been, it is 29th per- play against third- and fourth-down passes.
Among receivers targeted at least 40 times this season, Denver wideout Brandon Lloyd leads the league with 16.3 Air Yards (yards between the moment the ball leaves the quarterback’s hand and the moment the receiver catches it, with no yards after the catch) for every reception.
If the Chiefs win the AFCWest, is it time to give RB Jamaal Charles some love in the MVP voting? Probably not, since he’s part of a running back platoon and Kansas City’s passing attack has improved lately. But it’s certainly past time to recognize Charles as one of the NFL’s best backs; he is second in yards from scrimmage with 1,516.
The Vikings scored 31 points in the first half against the Bills last week, more than they’ve scored in any other game all season, with Tarvaris Jackson at QB after Brett Favre was injured. Favre leads the NFL with a 5.1 percent interception rate (18 in 351 attempts), and the Giants are No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ pass defense measure.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN, Ravens by 3
The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense since 2000 (17 points per game).WRDerrick Mason needs three catches to become the seventh player to reach 50 in 11 consecutive seasons. TexansWR Andre Johnson is averaging 90.6 yards receiving per game since 2006, tops in the NFL.
SMARTER STATS: The Texans have the fourth-worst defensive efficiency ever after 13 games, behind the 0-16 Detroit Lions of 2008 and two different St. Louis Rams teams from the past decade. Their final four opponents rank 12th (Baltimore), 23rd (Tennessee), 10th (Denver), and 15th (Jacksonville) in Football Outsiders’ offensive metric.
USERS PICKING THE RAVENS 92% USER PICKS
72% picked the Browns
99% picked the Falcons
77% picked the Jaguars
95% picked the Packers
97% picked the Steelers
96% picked the Saints
53% picked the 49ers
93% picked the Jets
65% picked the Broncos
64% picked the Chargers
75% picked the Giants
W L T PCT. PF PA
N.Y. Giants .......... 8 4 0 .667 308 247 Philadelphia ........ 8 4 0 .667 344 281 Washington ........ 5 7 0 .417 222 293 Dallas .................. 4 8 0 .333 294 336
SOUTH
W L T PCT. PF PA
Atlanta .............. 10 2 0 .833 304 233 New Orleans ....... 9 3 0 .750 299 227 Tampa Bay .......... 7 5 0 .583 243 251 Carolina ............... 1 11 0 .083 154 307
NORTH
W L T PCT. PF PA
Chicago ............... 9 3 0 .750 246 192 Green Bay ........... 8 4 0 .667 303 182 Minnesota ........... 5 7 0 .417 227 253 Detroit ................ 2 10 0 .167 278 306
WEST
W L T PCT. PF PA
Seattle ................ 6 6 0 .500 240 289 St. Louis .............. 6 6 0 .500 232 237 San Francisco ...... 4 8 0 .333 203 259 Arizona ............... 3 9 0 .250 200 338
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