lowing better identification of particularly vulnerable
systems, sectors and regions. And there is increased
Reasons for concern
evidence that low-latitude and less-developed areas
about projected climate change impacts
generally face greater risk, for example in dry areas
and mega-deltas. New studies confirm that Africa is
Risks from
one of the most vulnerable continents because of the
extreme climate
range of projected impacts, multiple stresses and low
capacity to adapt. Substantial risks from sea level rise Risk to unique
are projected, particularly for Asian mega-deltas and
and threatened
for small island communities.
systems
Distribution of
Aggregate impacts. Compared with the third re-
impacts
port, the initial market benefits of climate change are
projected to peak at a lower temperature and there-
Accumulated
impacts
fore sooner than was assessed in the TAR. But eco-
nomics are not the only way of quantifying the im- Risks from future
pacts of climate change: over the next century it is
large scale
singularities
likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of peo-
ple through increased coastal flooding, reductions in
-1 0 123456
water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased
Temperature increase in
o
C
health impacts.
neutral or small negative or positive impacts or risks
negative impacts for some systems or low risks
Risks of large-scale singularities (unique phe-
negative impacts or risks that are more widespread and/or greater in
nomena). During this century a large-scale abrupt
magnitude
change in the ocean circulation is very unlikely. Global
Source: IPCC, 2001.
warming over many centuries would lead to a sea level
rise contribution from thermal expansion alone that is Antarctic ice sheets may be larger than projected by
projected to be much larger than that observed over ice sheet models and could occur on century time
the 20th century, with the loss of coastal areas and as- scales. This is because ice movements seen in recent
sociated impacts. There is better understanding than observations, but not fully included in ice sheet mod-
in the TAR that the risk of additional contributions to els assessed in the Fourth Assessment Report, could
sea level rise from both the Greenland and possibly increase the rate of ice loss.
Key vulnerabilities, impacts and risks – long-term perspectives 57
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