Scenarios
A scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of
how the future may develop, based on a coherent set of
assumptions: a set of working hypotheses about how society
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may develop, and what this will mean for the climate.
MARKET-
ORIENTED
The A1 scenario describes a future world of very rapid economic The A2 scenario describes a very heterogenous
growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century and world, based on the preservation of local identities.
declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and Fertility patterns across regions converge slowly,
efficient technologies. Specific regional patterns tend to resulting in a continuously increasing population.
disappear as a result of increased cultural interaction. Economic development is regionally
The gap in per capita income between regions oriented, and per capita economic
is substantially reduced. A1 develops into growth and technological change
three groups that describe alternative more fragmented than in A1.
developments of energy supply:
fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil
A1FI
energy sources, or a balance
between all sources (A1B).
A1B A2
MORE GLOBAL
MORE REGIONAL
B1 B2
The B1 scenario describes a The B2 scenario describes a
convergent world with a global world with an emphasis on local
population that peaks in mid-century solutions to economic social and
and declines thereafter as in A1, but environmental sustainability rather
with rapid change in economic than the global approach in B1. It is a
structures toward a service and informa- world with a population increasing at a
tion economy. It describes reductions in slower rate than in other scenarios,
consumption and the introduction of clean and intermediate levels of economic development, and
resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on slow but diverse technological change. Society is oriented
global solutions to sustainability, including improved equity, towards environmental protection and social equity and
but without additional climate initiatives. focuses on the local and regional level.
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ENVIRONMENTAL Source: GRID-Arendal based on information from IPCC, 2001.
Projected climate change and its impacts 25
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