Regional impacts associated with global temperature change
Impacts will vary by extent of adaptation, rate of
Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980 - 1999 temperature change and socio-economic pathway
+1
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2
o
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3
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4
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5
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Subsaharan species at risk of extinction:
10 to 15 per cent 25 to 40 per cent
AFRICA
People with increased water stress:
Semi-arid/arid areas increase by 5 to 8 per cent
75 to 250 million
350 to 600 million Addtional people affected
Crop yield potential: 5 to 12 per cent decrease rice in China
2 to 5 per cent decrease wheat and maize in India
ASIA
Additional people at risk of coastal flooding each year:
Up to 2 million Up to 7 million
People with increased water stress:
0.1 to 1.2 billion 0.2 to 1.0 billion Addtional people affected
3000 to 5000 more heat related deaths per year
AUSTRALIA/
Murray - Darling
- 10 per cent - 50 per cent
river flow:
NEW ZEALAND
Decreasing water security in south and east Australia and parts of New Zealand
Water availability:
Northern Europe: +5 to +15 per cent +10 to +20 per cent
Southern Europe: 0 to - 25 per cent -5 to -35 per cent
EUROPE
Wheat yield potential:
Northern Europe: +2 to +10 per cent +10 to +25 per cent +10 to +30 per cent
Southern Europe: +3 to +4 per cent -10 to +20 per cent -15 to +30 per cent
Potential extinction of about 25 per cent Potential extinction of about 45
Central Brazilian savanna tree species per cent Amazonian tree species
LATIN
Many tropical glaciers dissappear Many mid-lattitude glaciers disappear
AMERICA
People with addtitional water stress:
10 to 80 million 80 to 180 million Additional people affected
5 to 20 per cent increase
crop yield potential
70 to 120 per cent increase
NORTH
forest area burnt in Canada
About 70 per cent increase in
AMERICA
hazardous ozone days
3 to 8 times increase in heat
Decreased space heating and increased space cooling
wave days in some cities
20 to 35 per cent reduction of Arctic permafrost area 10 to 50 per cent Arctic
POLAR
tundra replaced by forest
Increase in depth of seasonal thaw
REGIONS
of Arctic permafrost: 10 to 15 per cent
15 to 25 per cent
30 to 50 per cent
15 to 25 per cent polar
desert replaced by tundra
Increasing coastal inundation and damage to infrastructure due to sea level rise
SMALL
Alien species colonise mid- and high latitude islands
ISLANDS Agricultural losses up to per cent GDP in high terrain islands,
up to 20 per cent losses in low terrain islands
40 Planet in Peril
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