levels. Some studies suggest mitigation opportunities either existing technology or new technologies that
with net gains. In other words, mitigation can create a will be commercially available in the coming decades
positive financial result for the economy, for example if appropriate framework conditions for their develop-
through the development of new technologies or re- ment are put in place.
duced energy costs.
Positive side-effects of early mitigation
It was estimated that already measures with net gains There is a considerable potential for achieving a dou-
could reduce global CO
2
eq emissions by 6 gigatonnes ble benefit from measures to mitigate climate change.
per year by 2030. Today, the global fossil fuel emis- Reducing GHG emissions can result in large and rapid
sions are about 27 GtCO
2
/yr. health benefits from reduced air pollution which may
also offset a substantial part of the mitigation costs.
Equally, there is high agreement among IPCC scien- Energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy of-
tists and much evidence that all stabilization levels fer synergies with sustainable development. In least-
suggested in the table below can be achieved with developed countries for example, changing the source
Stabilization scenarios
CO
2
concentration CO
2
-equivalent Peaking year for Change in global Global average Global average sea level Number of
at stabilization
1
concentration CO
2
emissions CO
2
emissions in temperature increase rise above pre-industrial assessed
at stabilization
2
2050 (% of above pre-industrial at equilibrium from thermal scenarios
2000 emissions) at equilibrium expansion only
3
ppm ppm year per cent °C metres
350 - 400 445 - 490 2000 - 2015 -85 to -50 2.0 - 2.4 0.4 - 1.4 6
400 - 440 490 - 535 2000 - 2020 -60 to -30 2.4 - 2.8 0.5 - 1.7 18
440 - 485 535 - 590 2010 - 2030 -30 to +5 2.8 - 3.2 0.6 - 1.9 21
485 - 570 590 - 710 2020 - 2060 +10 to +60 3.2 - 4.0 0.6 - 2.4 118
570 - 660 710 - 855 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85 4.0 - 4.9 0.8 - 2.9 9
660 - 790 855 - 1130 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140 4.9 - 6.1 1.0 - 3.7 5
Note: the global average temperature at equilibrium is different from the expected global average temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations
due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed GHG concentrations are expected to stabilize between 2100 and 2150.
1 - Atmospheric CO
2
concentrations were 379ppm in 2005
2 - The best estimate of total CO2-eq concentration in 2005 for all long-lived GHGs is about 455ppm, while the corresponding value including the net effect
of all anthropogenic forcing agents is 375ppm CO
2
-eq
3 - Equilibrium sea level rise only reflects the contribution of ocean thermal expansion and does not reach equilibrium for many centuries. Long-term
thermal expansion is projected to result in 0.2 to 0.6m per degree Celsius of global average warming above pre-industrial levels.
42 Planet in Peril
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