The limits of adaptation and
mitigation
Once GHG concentrations are stabilized, the rate at its impacts remember the inertia in both climate and
which the global average temperature increases is ex- socio-economic systems.
pected to slow within a few decades. But small temper-
ature increases are expected for several centuries. Sea Adaptation will be ineffective in some cases such as
level rise from the expansion of warmer water would natural ecosystems (e.g. the loss of Arctic sea ice
continue for many centuries at a gradually slowing rate, and marine ecosystem viability), the disappearance of
as the oceans will continue to absorb heat. The result mountain glaciers that play vital roles in water storage
would be an eventual sea level rise much larger than and supply, or sea level rise of several metres. Adapta-
projected for the 21st century. Even if GHG and aero- tion will be more complicated or very costly in many
sol concentrations had been stabilized at the levels they cases for the climate change projected beyond the
had reached in 2000, thermal expansion alone would be next few decades (for example in deltas and estuaries).
expected to lead to further sea level rise of 0.3 to 0.8m. The IPCC has found that the ability of many ecosys-
tems to adapt naturally probably will be exceeded this
This example shows how important it is that efforts to century. In addition, multiple barriers and constraints
reduce the rate and magnitude of climate change and to effective adaptation exist in human systems.
February 16
th
: the Kyoto protocol Adoption of the Draft for a post -
enters into force Bali Road Map Kyoto
Protocol???
Russia ratifies the Kyoto protocol
UNFCCC
UNFCCC COP 10
COP 12 Bali
Marrakesh Accords Montreal Action Plan:
UNFCCC
UNFCCC
Agreement on
COP 14
Buenos Aires Plan of scientific evidence COP 10
post-Kyoto action
Copenhagen
Action: of global warming Buenos Aires
how to reach the targets
UNFCCC
"warming of the UNFCCC
3rd Earth Summit
COP 11 climate system
COP 13
UNFCCC COP 4
Johannesburg
Montreal is unequivocal"
Poznan
Buenos Aires
3
rd
IPCC report 4
th
IPCC report intensive negotiations
1998 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009
Adaptation and mitigation 51
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