Key vulnerabilities,
impacts and risks –
long-term perspectives
This section presents the essential climate change is- ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts
sues in brief, and compares recent findings with the as temperatures rise. An increasing risk of species ex-
state of knowledge of the Third Assessment Report tinction and coral reef damage is projected with higher
which in 2001 identified five “reasons for concern” confidence than in the TAR as warming proceeds.
over the long term.
Risks of extreme weather events. Responses to
These “reasons” are judged to be stronger in the some recent extreme events reveal higher levels of
fourth report than previously. Many risks are identified vulnerability in both developing and developed coun-
with higher confidence. Some risks are projected to tries than was assessed in the Third Assessment Re-
be larger or to occur at lower increases in tempera- port. There is now higher confidence in the projected
ture. Understanding about the relationship between increases in droughts, heat waves and floods.
impacts (the basis for “reasons for concern”) and
vulnerability (which includes the (in-)ability to adapt Distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities. There
to impacts) has improved. This is because of more are sharp differences across regions, and those in the
precise identification of the circumstances that make weakest economic position are often the most vulner-
systems, sectors and regions especially vulnerable able to climate change and are frequently the most
and growing evidence of the risks of very large im- susceptible to climate-related damages, especially
pacts on multiple-century time scales. when they face multiple stresses. There is increasing
evidence of the greater vulnerability of specific groups
Risks to unique and threatened systems. There such as the poor and elderly, not only in developing
is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts but also in developed countries. There is greater con-
of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems fidence in the projected regional patterns of climate
(such as polar and high mountain communities and change and in the projections of regional impacts, al-
Key vulnerabilities, impacts and risks – long-term perspectives 55
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