Politics Continued from page 44 Most Democrats we talked with say


that Biden wouldn’t be able to pass up the chance for a second term if he could run as “The Comeback Kid” in 2024. A minority view holds that Biden’s


inner circle knows he is more fragile than what they allow to be seen in public. Having Biden leave from a position of strength could be sold to him as part of a graceful exit. “Few presidents who could have


run for reelection haven’t done so,” says presidential historian Craig Shir- ley. “But there are exceptions. “James K. Polk used a version of ‘promises made, promises kept’ in stepping down in 1848 and left a real legacy. Harry Truman was certainly happier that he chose to withdraw from the 1952 Democratic primaries; his standing as president has only gone up since then.” Few political observers believe that


a leading Democrat will challenge Biden should he decide to run again. “History shows one of the major


factors in having a party lose the White House is whether or not the incum- bent president had a serious internal primary challenge,” says Allan Licht- man, a historian whose “Keys to the White House” model has been surpris- ingly accurate in predicting election results.


Nonetheless, the lack of a major Democratic opponent doesn’t mean Biden would be home free. He could stumble frequently in public, or the Hunter Biden scandal that the media did so much to bury during the 2020 campaign could implicate Biden himself. He could also perform poorly in a


debate and propel the candidacy of even a lesser-known Democratic rival.


8 POTENTIAL CONTENDERS What would happen if Biden did decline to run for a second term? The scramble for the Democrat-


46 NEWSMAX | NOVEMBER 2022


ic nomination would be intense and crowded because as one top Demo- cratic donor told The Hill newspaper: “There’s not one clear candidate and not one rising star.” Here’s who is likely to run: Kamala Harris, age 58: In 2020, the California senator had the best paper resume among the names on Biden’s shortlist for vice president. A liberal, but one with a law enforcement background as a pros- ecutor, Harris was a woman with both an African and East Asian family background. She had turned in a strong perfor-


mance opposing Supreme Court nom- inee Brett Kavanaugh in 2018. She has a strong connection with both Black women and supporters of the Roe v. Wade abortion decision — two key ele- ments of the Democratic decision. But as soon as Harris was sworn


in, the wheels started coming off of her coach. She generated constant headlines


over gaffes and bizarre non-sequitur speeches, along with picking fights with Biden White House aides. Her office became known as a place


where staffers were hired, stayed for a while and then left, dissatisfied or frus- trated with the chaotic atmosphere. Pete Buttigieg, age 40: In 2020, the


former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, became the “it” candidate of the cultur- ally left media, and performed far bet- ter than most expected. He parlayed his status as the first


openly gay presidential candidate into a flood of East Coast and West Coast campaign donations, and thrilled elite audiences with his Ivy League back- ground and military service. As Biden’s transportation secretary


he has been perfectly positioned to take credit for launching infrastructure projects and to travel to states with a large number of Democratic donors. A caveat for any possible candi-


dacy is that he flopped in the 2020 primaries, which had large numbers


Jill Will Have Final Word A


largely unseen yet powerful force in any Biden reelection decision will be first lady Jill Biden. While she has been careful to say that no “family meeting” on the decision is on the calendar, it’s clear where she stands. “She’s in favor of another race if she’s convinced that he won’t be embarrassing himself on the campaign trail and can devote enough time to it,” a Delaware friend of the Bidens told me. Jill Biden herself is fairly unequivocal. “Look at all Joe has done,” she says. “He has kept true to what he said he would do. And so I just think he needs to keep going.” — J.F.


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