Backtalk B
JOHN R. LOTT JR. / GUEST COLUMNIST Flat-Out Proof of Voter Fraud
y 52% to 40%, voters believe that “cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election,” according to a Rasmussen Reports sur- vey in March
This stands in stark contrast to the countless news stories editorializing about “no evidence of voter fraud” and “the myth of voter fraud.” It isn’t just Republicans who believe this cheating
occurred. Even 34% of Democrats believe it, as do 38% of those who “somewhat” support President Joe Biden. And with good reason. New research of mine fi nds evi-
dence of around 255,000 excess votes (possibly as many as 368,000) for Biden in six swing states where Donald Trump lodged accusations of fraud. Biden only carried these states —
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — by a total of 313,253 votes. Excluding Michigan, the gap was 159,065. The point of my study isn’t to
contest the 2020 election, but to point out that we have a real prob- lem that needs to be dealt with. Americans must have confi dence in future elections. Courts have rejected challenges
offi ces are responsible for counting absentee or mail-in bal- lots. A county with systemic fraud may count absentee or mail-in ballots diff erently from a neighboring county. We can try to detect this fraud by comparing the results in bordering precincts that happen to fall on opposite sides of a county line. These precincts will tend to be virtually identi- cal to each other — voters may simply be on the other side of the street from their precinct neighbors. In 2016, there was no unexplained gap in absentee ballot
The point of my study isn’t to contest
to the 2020 presidential vote, gen- erally citing the lack of evidence that any alleged fraud would have altered the outcome in a particular state. Recounts haven’t been useful in resolving fraud con-
the 2020 election, but to point out that we have a real problem that needs to be dealt with. Americans must have confi dence in future elections.
cerns, as they merely involve recounting the same poten- tially fraudulent ballots. Signature verifi cation is far from perfect, as election employees have as little as fi ve seconds to check a signature. Amid unprecedented numbers of mail-in ballots in the
2020 election, many states didn’t even try to verify signa- tures. If someone mailed in multiple ballots, there was vir- tually no way to catch them. And without tamper-resistant photo IDs, fraud is diffi cult to prove. Unless someone tries voting multiple times in the same precinct, there is no way to catch them. My research provides three tests of vote fraud. First, I compared precincts in a county with alleged fraud
to adjacent, similar precincts in neighboring counties with no fraud allegations. Precincts tend to be small, homoge- neous areas, and many consist of fewer than a thousand registered voters. While precincts count in-person votes, central county
98 NEWSMAX | MAY 2022
counts. But 2020 was a diff erent story. Just in Fulton County, Georgia, my test yielded an unexplained 17,000 votes — 32% more than Biden’s margin over Trump in the entire state. With the focus on winning the state, there is no apparent reason why Democrats would get out the absentee ballot vote more in one precinct than in a neighboring pre- cinct with similar political and demo- graphic characteristics. Next, I applied the same method to provisional ballots in Allegheny Coun- ty, Pennsylvania. Contrary to state law, voters were allegedly allowed to correct defects in absentee ballots by submitting provisional ballots on Election Day. My analysis found that such permissions in Allegheny Coun- ty alone contributed to a statistically signifi cant 6,700 additional votes for
Biden — in a state decided by fewer than 81,000 votes. Finally, artifi cially large voter turnouts can also be a sign
of vote fraud. This fraud could come in the form of fi lling out absentee ballots for people who didn’t vote, voting by ineli- gible people, or bribing people for their votes. Republican-leaning swing state counties had higher turn-
outs relative to the 2016 election. Democrat-leaning counties had lower turnouts, except for the Democrat counties with alleged vote fraud, which had very high turnouts. In Fulton County, Georgia, 2,423 voters were not listed as registered on the state’s records, and 2,560 felons voted even though they had not completed their sentences. Vote fraud erodes trust in elections and makes people less motivated to vote. Compared to Europe and other developed countries, America is unique in its lax approach to vote fraud. Ignoring Americans’ concerns won’t make the problem
go away.
John R. Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, was senior adviser at the U.S. Department of Justice’s Of ice of Legal Policy, where he dealt with issues of vote fraud.
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