The Aftermath: UKRAINE WAR


The Ukraine invasion looks like it is accelerating the Chinese timetable to attack Taiwan.


As The Economist wrote on March


12, the Chinese believe the invasion will “hasten America’s decline and slow retreat from the world.” The resulting “new global order” will allow China to establish its long-sought sphere of influence. In China’s sphere, Chinese leaders


believe, Taiwan will have no choice but to obey. Additionally, Chinese arro- gance probably has led President Xi Jinping to believe that nations will not punish China. He has escaped penalty for both belligerence and obvious support of the Russian invasion, so he must believe he can, after an attack on Tai- wan, intimidate others from taking him on.


Therefore, Biden’s too-late rallying


of the world against Russia may not particularly deter him. In any event, the Chinese appear to


believe the war will accelerate favor- able trends. “They’ll be the primary beneficiary


of the sanctions against Russia, the yuan will benefit from the decline of the ruble, and they have been given a case study of what the world’s response


would look like if they were to invade Taiwan,” Steve Gray, a former FBI special agent working on China cases, told Fox News. Xi, turning 69 soon, believes he


must annex the Republic of China. There is something else in the new


era that can accelerate Chinese inva- sion plans. China looks like it will be the victim of the Ukraine invasion’s most significant long-lasting effect. The invasion, it appears, will end the ongoing period of globalization.


D


uring globalization, the Commu- nist Chinese regime prospered.


Led by American presidents, the inter- national community saw it in its inter- est to support Chinese “reform” efforts. The notion was that, as China grew stronger, Chinese leaders would come to support the rules-based global order. This optimistic “engagement” theory, pursued during a period of prolonged peace, meant that China could develop without serious competition. Russia’s invasion, however, has shat-


tered decades of calm. Now, it feels as if the world has just passed a historical inflection point, transitioning into an


era of constant turbulence. Constant turbulence will result in de- globalization, the cutting of trade links. In the new period, oceans and skies


will no longer be safe, and companies will have to shorten supply chains — in other words, manufacture closer to consumers. Countries, therefore, will become less dependent on China. The process is already occurring.


The U.N., for instance, suggests sup- ply chain disruptions are making countries trade with neighbors, as opposed to those halfway around the world. As the U.N. stated in February,


“Efforts to shorten supply chains and to diversify suppliers could affect global trade patterns during 2022.” Global trade is already declining, due


to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, stated the Kiel Institute for the World Econo- my, a German think tank, in March. As this process continues, Beijing


will inevitably lose influence, under- mining Xi’s ability to coerce. Deglo- balization, therefore, gives China a reason to act against Taiwan quickly. Any Chinese attack on Taiwan would


rupture America’s ties with China. The U.S. recognizes Beijing as the legitimate government of China — the core issue in the Chinese Civil War — but America’s “One China” policy does not accept the Chinese view that Tai- wan is part of the Chinese state. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979


requires the U.S. to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. Washington, however, has allowed the military balance of power to shift dramatically in Beijing’s favor as a series of presidents tried not to antag- onize Chinese leaders. China for weeks had already been providing such support to Putin. In addition to entering into new agree- ments to buy oil, gas, and coal from Russia, Beijing removed restrictions on the importation of Russian wheat. Chinese officials can say what they


want, but they are financing Putin’s war.


Beijing has, in addition, been offer- MAY 2022 | NEWSMAX 13


SAM YEH/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES


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