Modelling applications
has advantages over other models for the immediate response to an incident, including that the risk area is not based on the expected form of the distribution of material. This system simply calculates how far
material might spread, so it is effectively a fail safe estimate, and will predict a larger area than other models. Since data from a well installed quality instrument may be valid over a sizeable area, a single Plumecast system could provide fast information on incidents away from the host site. In addition, the actual calculated location of a plume can be calculated, and this is based on the actual measured wind variations. Again, there is a fail safe approach, and Plumecast assumes that once an area is contaminated, then it stays contaminated. A major benefit of this approach is that the area marked is automatically updated as conditions vary.
Plumecast is also a more resilient system, as it does not require communications with external authorities and allows regional services to respond, even if those authorities are unavailable or overwhelmed by multiple events (see Figure 6 on previous page). In summary, early knowledge of the area at
risk from smoke or airborne hazardous material is important in reducing casualties and disruption during a major fire incident. This knowledge is dependent on wind information, and sources of wind data vary, as does their quality. Key risk sites could make a difference by installing quality wind
instruments, but there is little pressure to do so, and no defined standards for the equipment. Computer models can predict risk areas and
produce the results in an easily understood form, but take time. Modern technology now allows effectively instantaneous provision of information on risk areas to help minimise casualties from smoke or toxic plumes
Michael Brettle is a chartered meteorologist. For more information, view page 5
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www.frmjournal.com DECEMBER 2018/JANUARY 2019
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