at 9 million hectares, unchanged from last month’s projection, but up 1 per cent compared to last year’s final data. Yield is estimated at 3.33 tonnes per hectare, up 11 per cent from last month’s projection but down 7 per cent from last year. While the Canadian Prairies experienced hot and dry conditions
throughout the main part of the growing season, July and August, the dry conditions in the autumn were beneficial for the crop and allowed yield prospects to rebound. Manitoba, which produces about 16 per cent of the spring wheat crop, received favourable rainfall at critical periods and ended the season with record high yields of 4 tonnes per hectare, according to recently released data from Statistiques Canada. Additionally, both Alberta and Saskatchewan ended the season with higher than average yields. USDA has also pencilled in an additional 1.01 million tonnes for
the EU, increasing its current estimate from November’s projection of 151.5 million tonnes to its current estimate of 152.5 million tonnes. While USDA made no specific explanation for the increase, other sources suggest that the increase in productions was primarily down to what one source termed ‘a bounce back’ in the French cereal crop, up some 26 per cent from last year, when wet and cloudy conditions hit wheat production in particular, very hard. The European Commission said its latest production projections were based ‘on a return to trend yields’. Cereal production was also seen rising in Germany and Poland, staying largely flat in the UK, and falling In Italy, Spain, and Hungary. The estimated relationship between end of season stocks
worldwide at the end of the harvest year, at 132 Days Consumption Equivalent (DCE) is at the higher end of the scale over recent years and reflects the fact that, despite U.S. winter wheat conditions have worsened slightly during the month because of dry conditions in the Plains, there was a minimal impact on prices, based on the early stage of the crop and ‘the abundance of wheat in global markets’. USDA has made only marginal changes to its projection of the
global maize harvest in 2017-18, increasing its estimate from 1,043.9 million tonnes in November to 1,044.8 million tonnes. Higher world maize production reflects increased projections for China, up by 891,000 tonnes and the EU, up by 506,000 tonnes. This more than offsets a million-tonne reduction for Russia, to 14 million tonnes and is also a 1.3 million tonne reduction in last season’s record crop of 61.45 million tonnes. The decrease for Russia is based on persistently wet November
weather that impeded the progress of harvesting in the Central and Volga Districts. The maize harvest was about 75 per cent complete as of early December compared to 84 per cent last year. Harvest in the Central District, which is Russia’s top maize producing region, accounting for almost 40 per cent of the country’s output, was complete on 67 per cent of the planted area; this was the slowest pace since 2010. In the Volga District, which produces 10 per cent of Russia’s maize, harvest was only 40 per cent complete by the end of the first week of December, compared to 90 per cent by the same date last year.
PAGE 16 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2018 FEED COMPOUNDER
USDA has revised its estimated harvested area for Russia maize
down from 3 million hectares to 2.8 million hectares, with estimated yield unchanged at 5 tonnes per hectare, down 9 per cent from last year’s record but still 4 per cent above the 5-year average. The International Grains Council does not publish a Grain Market
Report for the month of December but its November projection for world grains projection of 2,079.5 million tonnes in 2017-18 was 4.8 million tonnes higher compared to its October projection of 2,074.7 million tonnes. However, IGC’s latest projection of total grain production in 2017-18 is also down from their latest estimate of production in 2016- 17, with the latter at 2,133.6 million tonnes, 2.5 per cent greater. Most of the change between IGC’s October and November
projections relates to changes in production of maize, including an upward revision for the US crop, from 362.7 million tonnes in October’s projection to 370.3 million tonnes in November’s projection. Increased use of maize for feed and miscellaneous use, mainly by the US, EU, Canada, Russia and China, absorbs part of the resulting boost to supplies while the figure for world end of season inventory is raised by 2.9 million tonnes to 205.5 million tonnes. IGC point out that, while this would be the first inventory contraction in five years, down by 29.6 million tonnes, end of season inventories are expected to be at their the second largest ever. At 347.8 million tonnes, IGC’s global 2017-18 soybean output
projection is forecast to be only marginally down from their October estimate and only fractionally short of the previous season’s estimated record of 350.1 million tonnes. Due to a higher figure for carry-in stocks, coupled with a cut to
global consumption, end of season inventories have been increased by 2.5 million tonnes to 41.1 million tonnes. Nevertheless, this is still a year-on-year contraction of just below 9 per cent, as an expected drop in major exporters’ carryovers is only mildly offset by increases in other countries, such as China. From a raw materials buyer’s point of view, this presents a
reasonably optimistic point of view as regards the evolution of raw material costs during the remainder of the 2017-18 harvest year. As we move further into calendar 2018, attention will begin increasingly to focus on supply and demand developments in 2018-19. In the meantime, updated PSD data for January 2018 should be available at approximately the time that this issue of Feed Compounder is in readers’ hands. The next issue of IGC’s Grain Market Report is scheduled for publication on 18 January 2018.
WEATHER WATCH
The year just departed, 2017, has truly been one of two halves. Temperatures across the UK for the first six months of the year
were, with the exception of January, well above ‘normal’ – the latter being defined by the average temperatures during the years 1981 to 2010. England was particularly warm in March, with temperatures hitting a balmy 2.2°C above normal. As far as rainfall was concerned, January and April were particularly dry, with 62 per cent and 48 per cent of normal UK rainfall respectively. England and Wales were
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