MACAU BUSINESS
nearly 40 per cent year-on-year. Macau is also a popular outbound destination for the upcoming Spring Festival,’ the platform told MB. ‘As of January 22, 2026, hotel bookings in Macau have increased by 57 per cent year-on- year, ticket bookings have surged by over threefold, and tour package bookings have more than doubled during the Spring Festival. Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi are among the top domestic source cities for travellers visiting Macau.’
For analysts, the combination of buoyant travel demand and strong premium mass and whale play suggests Macau is starting 2026 from a position of strength. While growth is expected to moderate beyond the holiday peak, the Chinese New Year period is shaping up as another test of the market’s ability to sustain high-value gaming in a more mature operating environment.
CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT OUTLOOK, ANALYSTS SEE UPSIDE CreditSights’ analysts observed that the Macau SAR government has taken what it described as a “conservative approach” in its 2026 forecast, guiding gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP 236 billion. The projection, released with the fiscal budget in November, represents a 3.5 per cent
year-on-year increase compared with the revised FY25 forecast of MOP 228 billion. Government officials emphasised that the outlook reflects “prudent financial management” in light of uncertainties in the external environment and broader economic conditions.
Despite this, CreditSights argued that the guidance is “overly conservative,” noting that it effectively implies a 4.6 per cent year-on-year decline versus 2025 results. The firm added, “We expect the healthy demand trends as witnessed in 2H25, particularly from the VIP segment, to carry into early 2026 and an easy YoY comp should support healthy growth to start the year.” While acknowledging that comparisons become more challenging in the latter half of 2026, CreditSights still sees “the potential for moderate (low-to-mid-single digit) GGR growth in FY26.” On a per-visitor basis, however, the outlook is less optimistic. CreditSights cautioned that “visitor arrivals from the more affluent regions of China have already mostly recovered back or surpassed pre-COVID levels, and further visitation recovery is likely to come largely from the less affluent regions with less spending power.” In its view, this dynamic could offset any upside from higher-spending VIP customers, making it more difficult for GGR per visitor to grow meaningfully.
Spintec qp CI
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