MACAU BUSINESS M
acau’s casino industry has entered 2026 with strong momentum, underpinned by resilient premium mass demand and a surge in high-end play, even as analysts warn that the market is shifting into a more mature phase of growth. In comments to Macau Business, Samuel Hui, Director of APAC Corporate Ratings at Fitch Ratings, says recent data from casino floors suggest that affluent mainland Chinese players continue to spend freely, providing a solid base for gaming revenue ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays in mid-February.
The 2026 Spring Festival holiday in China runs for nine consecutive days, from February 15 (Sunday) to February 23 (Monday), ushering in the Year of the Horse.
“The Chinese New Year holidays will be in the middle of February this year, compared to end-January to early-February in 2025. We expect Macau gaming performance to remain robust in January to February 2026, with 10–15 per cent year-on-year growth in GGR, given continued momentum in daily GGR and an easy base during this period last year,” Hui noted.
PREMIUM MASS AND WHALE ACTIVITY DRIVE OPTIMISM Evidence from the premium mass segment supports that optimism, with a January proprietary table survey by Citigroup showing a sharp increase in both wager size and whale activity, despite a slightly smaller number of players.
“Our Jan-26 proprietary table survey once again yielded positively surprising Premium Mass statistics,” Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said in a dispatch. The brokerage found that the average wager per player reached HK$28,424, up 41 per cent year on year, while total premium mass wager observed rose 25 per cent to HK$16.0 million. The survey also pointed to a notable rise in ultra-high-end play. “We saw 28 whales this month versus 24 in Jan-25,” the Citi analysts said, adding that those players wagered a combined HK$8.1 million, implying an average of about HK$290,000 per whale, nearly 50 per cent higher than a year earlier.
Citi added it had encountered six players wagering HK$500,000 or more in a single session, compared with just two in January 2025. “The wager/whale was significantly higher YoY,” the analysts said, describing the trend as a sign of sustained strength among affluent gamblers.
While Citi cautioned against linking the spending surge to any single event, it highlighted the role of entertainment, retail and non-gaming attractions in drawing wealthy visitors. “We think it is safe to say that Macau does have gaming and non-gaming product offerings that appeal to affluent mainland Chinese consumers, who remain willing to spend,” the analysts said.
MARCH 2026 29
SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE
The strong showing at the top end of the market comes as the broader sector moves beyond its post-pandemic rebound. S&P Global Ratings said Macau’s casino industry is entering a phase of slower but more stable growth in 2026. “The Macau casino gaming sector will be moving from a post-pandemic rebound to a more maturity-phase in 2026, as capacity limits and potentially softer mass demand temper growth,” S&P said, adding that “steady operations, selective share gains, and deleveraging still support modest upside.”
S&P forecasts overall gaming revenue growth of 3 per cent–7 per cent this year, down from 9.1 per cent in 2025, citing near-full hotel occupancy, limited new capacity and a slower return of base mass players. It also warned that the phasing out
of Chinese government consumption incentives could weigh on discretionary spending, although risks have eased as premium mass demand remained stable last year.
TRAVEL INDICATORS REINFORCE HOLIDAY OUTLOOK
Travel indicators ahead of the Chinese New Year also remain supportive. Fliggy, an online travel platform owned by Alibaba Group, said outbound travel continued to recover strongly, with international car rental bookings up more than 210 per cent year on year and chartered tour bookings rising more than tenfold on New Year’s Day. Macau ranked among the most popular short-haul destinations, alongside Hong Kong and other parts of East and Southeast Asia.
‘According Fliggy’s data, flight bookings to Macau since January 1, 2026 have increased by
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