Column: Research notes
Fuel cell cars could be a commercial failure
By Luke Gear, Senior Technology Analyst, IDTechEx T
he IDTechEx report called “Advanced Electric Cars 2020-2040” analyses fuel-cell cars globally through 2040 and finds they continue to be a commercial failure
for the next two decades. Whilst fuel- cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have been positioned as the long-range zero-emission vehicles to challenge the battery-electric vehicle (BEV), they have major drawbacks: • Currently, fuel-cell cars cost over 1.6x as much to buy and up to three times as much to run in fuel costs (depending on the country) compared to the average internal combustion engine (ICE). In contrast, BEVs are increasingly reaching TCO parity with ICE vehicles in different markets around the world today.
• FCEVs rely on Li-ion batteries for high power and energy harvesting, increasing costs (the Nikola One has a 250kWh battery).
• Fuel cells have moving parts, which means maintenance costs can be higher than for BEVs.
• Batteries are heading toward million- mile life and 1000-mile range with 2-4o
C
charging this decade, so by the time fuel- cell cars are affordable, batteries will have caught up and will be cheaper.
• Fundamentally, it takes more energy per mile to drive using hydrogen than a battery because of the 60% efficiency with heat
losses, in addition to needing electricity from the grid to create green hydrogen. One of the common arguments for fuel
cells is that they provide longer pure- electric ranges. Tis advantage is being eroded by the sheer pace of innovation and research for Li-ion batteries. As the IDTechEx report on Advanced Electric Cars highlights, the top three fuel-cell car models are the Toyota Mirai, with a 300-mile range, the Hyundai Nexo, with a 413-mile range, and the Honda Clarity, with a 316-mile range. Yet earlier in 2020, Tesla revealed a 400-mile Model S (EPA), spurred on by healthy competition from rival Lucid Motors, which later announced that the ‘Lucid Air’ BEV sedan would be the first production car with 500 miles pure-electric range EPA (with initial sales planned for Q1 next year). And this is without considering the potential for solar bodywork: the Lightyear One, on sale next year, achieves a 463-mile range with only a 50kWh battery. It is also important to consider
the ubiquitous rollout of charging infrastructure. Currently, sufficient hydrogen re-fuelling infrastructure does not exist to make fuel-cell car purchases tempting even for the early adopter, in part because they are an order of magnitude more expensive to introduce than fast electric chargers. So why should we pay attention to fuel
10 December/January 2021
www.electronicsworld.co.uk
Fuel-cell electric vehicles will have wider uptake in certain countries with strategies for a broader hydrogen economy, but this will be regionally isolated and not the global trend
cells? Well, they are not off the table just yet, especially for heavy-duty long-range applications such as off-road, marine and long-haul trucking. Te problem is, compared with cars, these are all relatively low-volume markets that will want to reduce costs quickly. Batteries also compete in these areas, which means the application would need very specific requirements that rule out a battery; for example, re-charging massive energy capacities (over 1MWh) in a few minutes. FCEVs will have wider uptake in
certain countries with a strategy for a broader hydrogen economy, but this will be regionally isolated and not a global trend. It will also prove a disadvantage for automakers having to develop different zero-emission vehicles for different regions, particularly as startups focus purely on BEVs and set the bar high. In short: if a battery can do it, it is
currently the best value option for the consumer and the environment. And a battery can do it for cars.
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