market outlook Tui reported record group revenue


for July to September and its annual revenue exceeded €20 billion for the first time, up 25% year on year. The group reported winter 2023-24 bookings and average prices “up significantly” and forecast revenue ZRXOG JURZ E\ DW OHDVW


Travel retailers attending Abta’s


Travel Convention at the end of October reported similarly strong trading. Fred Olsen Travel retail director Paul Hardwick told a Travel Weekly Business Breakfast: “About one-third of our business is new to us this year – the highest it has ever been.” The Travel Network Group chief executive Gary Lewis reported “a record year for many, with record numbers, record margins”, and Midcounties Cooperative chief RSHUDWLQJ RIILFHU &ODLUHb(YDQV QRWHG “We’re now booking into 2025.” Abta chief executive Mark Tanzer


declared the industry on “the threshold of a new era” at the convention, with artificial intelligence (AI) set to have a “transformative” impact but the record temperatures in many popular destinations during 2023 “making many reassess their investment strategy”. He warned: “The path the industry is


on over the next decade won’t be easy, [with] the challenges we face set against


WKLVb\HDU


We expect growth to be flat in the first quarter and turn positive after spring, picking up in the second half of the year as price pressures ease and rates begin to move downwards


FIGURE 6:


INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS % change v 2019


20


-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0


Europe Americas Asia Pacific


Middle East


Africa World *January-September 2023 Source: UNWTO


2021 2022 2023*


a background of international conflict ە DQGbHFRQRPLF VWDJQDWLRQ


THE MIDDLE East was the only global region to see


international tourist arrivals


surpass the 2019 level in 2023, according to UNWTO data, but Europe was only 6% shy


(Figure 6). European air traffic returned to 92% of 2019’s level in the year (Figure 7)


SLOW START TO YEAR Deloitte senior economist Debapratim De noted “a mixed message on consumer demand and growth” following the chancellor’s Autumn Statement in November, saying: “On the face of it, the news looked positive. Individuals will pay slightly lower taxes than otherwise, and the OBR suggested


FIGURE 7: EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC BY MONTH, 2022-23 % 100 %pt


variation v forecast


-1


% of 2019 air traffic -1


+1 Annual air traffic & forecast, 2019-29 -2 -2 -2 %


100 120


92% 92% 90% 87% 88% 86% 87% 86% 87% 88% 93% 93% 93% 80


Sep 2022


Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Source: Eurocontrol, October 2023 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep


40 60 80


83% 100% 92% 98% 100% 102% 104% 105% 106%


56% 45% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029


Travel Weekly Insight Report 2024 9


-59%


-20% -6%


-63%


-29% -12%


-93% -74% -38% -58% -5% 20% -72% -30% -8% -69% -34% -13%


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